674
FXUS64 KTSA 030551 CCA
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing late this evening along a
boundary extending from NW OK to SE KS... most notably just south of
the OK-KS border in N-Central OK. These storms are generally moving
eastward and are expected to impact mainly portions of Osage/ Pawnee
counties through early tonight. Then there is a low chance of
additional shower and storm development along this boundary
overnight tonight as it sags south... mainly northwest of I-44 in
NE OK. While severe weather is not expected, moderate DCAPE has
allowed storms this evening to produce strong outflow winds and
some localized stronger gusts cannot be ruled out in our area
tonight. Otherwise, have allowed heat headlines to expire this
evening with only some minor edits to PoP, sky, & temperature
grids. Remainder of the forecast is in good shape at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of the area, with
Heat Advisories in effect for a small portion of far northeast OK
and northwest AR. Afternoon heat indices of 105-115F are expected. A
breezy southerly wind will continue through this evening with gusts
of 15-25 mph. A few showers and thunderstorms, or perhaps just
outflow from distant storms, may move into far northeast OK near the
KS border this evening and overnight, but otherwise dry conditions
will prevail. Low temperatures will still be quite mild, generally
in the mid 70s to around 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A boundary will remain mostly stationary in northeast OK or southern
KS Wednesday, allowing for southerly warm/moist advection to
continue. This will maintain the unusually hot airmass in place.
Dewpoints were increased above the NBM through much of the
period. Another round of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect for Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon or
evening, CAMs indicate fairly large instability but with limited
wind shear. There may be just enough lift along the boundary to
generate scattered thunderstorms. Assuming this does occur, these
storms would be cold pool dominated and the main hazards would be
brief heavy rain and strong gusty winds. Independence Day
(Thursday) will feature more of the same with additional hot and
humid weather. By Thursday evening, however, a cold front will
overtake the stalled boundary across northeast OK. This will
likely result in sufficient lift for more widespread convective
initiation. With PWAT values near 2", weak steering flow, and
minimal shear, areas of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will
develop but other severe hazards are unlikely. As these storms
develop a surface cold pool, it will force the effective frontal
boundary south during the evening and overnight hours. Increased
Pops during this period to 40-60%.

For most areas, Friday will be much cooler and drier with highs
falling into the upper 80s with dewpoints into the 60s. Some
portions of southeast OK, where the front will be slower to clear,
may see a few additional storms during the first half of the day.
Low temperatures will be refreshing Saturday morning, with 60s
expected across the area.

Southerly flow resumes on Saturday with temperatures and humidity
levels climbing again into early next week. However, with a robust
trough across the northern Plains the atmosphere will overall be
cooler and less supportive of extreme heat. Presumably, this should
cap maximum temperatures in the mid 90s. So although it will be
hot, it will feel cooler than our current weather regime.
Additionally, as the upper trough digs into the region we will see
rain chances increase beginning Saturday, but more likely Sunday
to Monday. Increased Pops from the NBM to account for this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light rain shield, associated with a weak surface boundary,
continues to dissipate as it pushes eastward across
Osage/Pawnee/Washington counties in OK this evening. Did throw in
a TEMPO group at BVO for light rain through about 07z. Otherwise,
sct-bkn mid/high level clouds will persist this
evening/overnight tonight and VFR should prevail at all TAF sites.

Low end precipitation/storm chances remain possible this afternoon
along a weak surface boundary that will become stationary near
the OK/KS/MO/AR borders by this afternoon. Maintained Prob30
groups at the far northwest AR terminals and added Prob30 groups
to the northeast OK terminals through the second half of the
forecast period. Light and variable winds prevail through early-
mid morning before predominately out of the south/southwest around
10 knots by late morning at most sites.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  79  99  71 /  20  20  30  50
FSM  101  80 100  76 /  10  10  20  50
MLC   99  79  98  72 /   0   0  20  50
BVO   93  73  96  65 /  30  30  30  40
FYV   97  75  97  69 /  20  10  30  60
BYV   97  75  97  69 /  40  30  40  60
MKO   98  78  98  71 /  10  10  20  60
MIO   94  74  96  67 /  40  40  40  50
F10   99  78  99  70 /  10  10  30  60
HHW   96  78  97  73 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67