418
FXUS64 KTSA 011533
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1033 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Axis of high dew points centered over eastern OK this morning
associated with remnant frontal boundary moving northward. AS
such, hot and humid conditions spreading back north this afternoon
with the most dangerous HI readings focused generally along and
west of US 69 in eastern OK. Most of northwest AR should continue
to see relatively lower dew points. For right now the current
configuration of heat headlines should be good, though it is
possible a few counties may eventually need to be added to the
advisory. Isolated showers or storms remain possible within moist
axis as well. No updates needed at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mid/upper-level ridging will strengthen and begin to shift
eastward over the southeastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. Both
days will remain (mostly) dry with strong subsidence occurring
aloft. Unseasonably hot and humid conditions will remain the
center of focus Tuesday through Thursday, with heat headlines
likely needed each day.

Ridging begins to breakdown and weaken beginning Wednesday
evening/night as a low-amplitude trough tries to push into the
Plains. Medium-range forecast models show another frontal boundary
pushing into the Central Plains on Wednesday, with guidance
suggesting the boundary becomes stationary, remaining north of
the forecast area Wednesday through most of Thursday. Lift and
moisture pooling along the front may cause showers and
thunderstorms to form Wednesday north of the forecast area.
However, low PoPs (10-30%) were maintained along the KS/OK and
AR/MO borders as a few storms/outflow boundaries may penetrate the
northern-tier of the forecast area on Wednesday and into Thursday
morning, but most locations are expected to remain hot and dry.

A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur
beginning late Thursday night through Friday as the cold front is
forecast to advance southward through the forecast area. Although
widespread severe chances are not high, storms that form with the
front Thursday night into Friday may be strong or marginally
severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. With
PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may also
occur with the storms. With that said, there remains uncertainty
with strength and position of the cold at this time and
adjustments to the forecast are likely over the next few days. If
the forecast verifies, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal
average Friday and Saturday, with ridging building back in by
Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Forecast remains on track this morning. Frontal boundary is starting
to lift north and will become diffuse this afternoon with south
winds developing. Upper ridge will remain over the region and
although an isolated shower/thunderstorm will be possible, overall
precip coverage still appears too low to include at this time.
Scattered mid/high clouds will persist across NE OK/NW AR with a
few afternoon CU possible elsewhere. VFR conditions are generally
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  80 100  81 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   94  74  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   97  77  98  78 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   95  77 100  77 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   92  71  95  76 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   90  69  97  76 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   93  76  97  78 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   93  74  97  78 /  20   0   0  10
F10   95  77  98  78 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   94  76  97  78 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     062-068-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...12