304
FXUS64 KTSA 012252
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Very hot and humid conditions will prevail the remainder of the day
with heat indices of 100-115F. The higher heat indices will be in
the lower elevation areas of eastern OK and the lower values in the
higher terrain of northwest AR. An Excessive Heat Warning in in
effect for portions of eastern OK with a Heat Advisory for most of
the rest of the area. Tonight will be quiet with lows ranging
from the low 70s to near 80 F. A very isolated shower is possible
this afternoon but most areas will be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Over the next few days the pattern will largely be stationary. The
big picture will feature an elongated ridge from central Texas
towards North Carolina. Meanwhile, a trough will dig across the
northern Plains. This will result in a boundary setting up to the
north of the area, where repeated rounds of convection will
develop and gradually force this boundary south. For eastern OK
and northwest AR, we can expect several days of very warm and
humid conditions. NBM is probably running a bit low with dew
points the next several days, so increased values slightly to
account for the apparent dry bias. Specific humidity in the lower
atmosphere will continue to run near the 99th percentile for this
time of year. High temperatures were also nudged slightly
downward, but will still be quite hot in the mid 90s to low 100s
for most areas. Overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s are
expected. Widespread afternoon heat indices of 105 F or greater
are likely through Thursday with pockets of heat indices values
of 110+ also expected. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for
much of the area tomorrow with Head Advisories everywhere else. Additional
heat products are expected in the coming days.

By Wednesday evening, the boundary may shift far enough south for
a few isolated storms to move into far northern OK. Then on
Thursday (Independence Day), the boundary will move into the area
as a cold front, bringing increased storm chances. With elevated
PWAT values near 2", any storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis shows that roughly 40% of
ensemble members are more favorable for rain, and in these cases
it is because the trough axis is a little sharper and further to
the southwest, which presumably results in better dynamics for
lift. Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier conditions will
develop.

On Friday, the front will move into southeast OK, pulling the
best chance of rain to the south, with the front washing out by
Saturday. During the day Saturday southerly flow resumes with the
hot and humid air sloshing back through the forecast area. This airmass
will persist for multiple days with additional heat headlines
next week certainly possible. Ensemble guidance favors another
rain chance towards the end of next week but there is significant
uncertainty with respect to the forecast details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Inserted VCTS for the KFSM TAF with isolated storm nearby, but
this should be done by 02Z. VFR conditions will prevail thru the
period with just a few passing high clouds overnight and on
Tuesday. Some cu development is expected by Tuesday afternoon
near the W AR TAF sites. No rain or storm mention is needed.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 101  82 100 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   74  99  79 101 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   78  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77 101  77  97 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   71  95  76  98 /   0   0   0  20
BYV   69  95  76  97 /   0   0   0  20
MKO   76  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   75  97  78  96 /   0   0  10  20
F10   77  99  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-058-
     063-068-069.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-
     062-068-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30