854
FXUS64 KTSA 020534
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

As of mid evening the dome of high pressure a loft remained the
main feature over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the
surface a weak boundary was positioned north to south near the
Oklahoma Arkansas border. A few isolated showers/storms had
developed along this boundary late this afternoon...though with
the loss of daytime heating this activity had dissipated.
Otherwise across the CWA...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and
temps in the 80s were common.

Overnight tonight...the weak surface boundary is expected to
remain near the Oklahoma Arkansas border with dewpoints in the 70s
common to the west and 60s to the east. At the same time...east to
southerly winds should continue overnight which will aid in low
temps tonight varying from the upper 60s to upper 70s across the
CWA. For the evening update...have added minor tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoint trends as well as lows tonight based on the
position of the boundary. Otherwise current forecast seems to be
in good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Over the next few days the pattern will largely be stationary. The
big picture will feature an elongated ridge from central Texas
towards North Carolina. Meanwhile, a trough will dig across the
northern Plains. This will result in a boundary setting up to the
north of the area, where repeated rounds of convection will
develop and gradually force this boundary south. For eastern OK
and northwest AR, we can expect several days of very warm and
humid conditions. NBM is probably running a bit low with dew
points the next several days, so increased values slightly to
account for the apparent dry bias. Specific humidity in the lower
atmosphere will continue to run near the 99th percentile for this
time of year. High temperatures were also nudged slightly
downward, but will still be quite hot in the mid 90s to low 100s
for most areas. Overnight lows in the mid 70s to low 80s are
expected. Widespread afternoon heat indices of 105 F or greater
are likely through Thursday with pockets of heat indices values
of 110+ also expected. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for
much of the area tomorrow with Heat Advisories everywhere else.
Additional heat products are expected in the coming days.

By Wednesday evening, the boundary may shift far enough south for
a few isolated storms to move into far northern OK. Then on
Thursday (Independence Day), the boundary will move into the area
as a cold front, bringing increased storm chances. With elevated
PWAT values near 2", any storms will be capable of heavy
rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis shows that roughly 40% of
ensemble members are more favorable for rain, and in these cases
it is because the trough axis is a little sharper and further to
the southwest, which presumably results in better dynamics for
lift. Behind the front, somewhat cooler and drier conditions will
develop.

On Friday, the front will move into southeast OK, pulling the
best chance of rain to the south, with the front washing out by
Saturday. During the day Saturday southerly flow resumes with the
hot and humid air sloshing back through the forecast area. This
airmass will persist for multiple days with additional heat
headlines next week certainly possible. Ensemble guidance favors
another rain chance towards the end of next week but there is
significant uncertainty with respect to the forecast details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through
the next 24 hours with just a few cumulus clouds forming during
the daytime today. Southerly sfc winds will rapidly increase and
become gusty by 14-15z this morning. Frequent gusts between 20-25
knots will be common at most sites, locally higher at times,
through about 01-02z Wednesday before subsiding.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  80  99  80 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   99  80 100  80 /   0   0  10   0
MLC   98  79  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  101  76  96  75 /   0  20  20  30
FYV   96  77  98  75 /   0  10  20  10
BYV   96  77  98  74 /   0  10  30  20
MKO   97  77  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   97  77  94  76 /   0  20  30  30
F10   99  77  99  79 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   96  78  96  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67