841
FXUS64 KTSA 051724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A weak shortwave combined with elevated frontogenetic forcing
continued to move south and southeast across the region this
morning. In response...scattered showers and thunderstorms
remained ongoing...mainly closer to the shortwave center over
Western/Central Oklahoma. A few showers/storms had developed along
the southward push of the frontogenetic forcing band across
Southeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...partly to mostly cloudy conditions and cooler
temps were common.

Through this afternoon...the shortwave and elevated front are
progged to continue to slide off to the south and southeast and
exit late afternoon/early evening. Will continue to hold onto
small chance PoPs and shift them southward across Southeast
Oklahoma through the afternoon. A limiting factor will be drier
air pushing into Southeast Oklahoma on the backside of the front
along with instability exiting to the south and southeast this
afternoon. Thus...not expecting severe weather and any additional
QPF should remain light.

Scattered to broken cloud cover should continue across the
majority of the CWA this afternoon while the shortwave moves
through the region. These cloud conditions and northerly low level
flow filtering through the CWA will help to keep temps cooler this
afternoon. Current forecast high temps in the 80s to around 90
deg remain on track...and for the morning update have only added
minor adjustments to PoPs/Sky grids for the afternoon to account
for the movement of the shortwave. The rest of the forecast looks
to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The drier airmass with clearing skies will allow for a pleasantly
cool night tonight, with most areas falling into the lower-mid
60s. This type of regime often results in low temps below the
NBM and closer to traditional MOS numbers, which have been
favored for lows tonight. Dry weather will continue through
Saturday with daytime highs closer to normal.

With a high amplitude and strong ridge setting up over the western
CONUS, a broad upper trough remains established over the plains,
the next several days should feature near to slightly below normal
temperatures, and periodic thunderstorm chances returning later
in the weekend through a good part of next week. The Sunday night
into Monday period remains favored for more extensive storm
coverage, with some organized severe potential and heavy rainfall
threat during that time.

A fair amount of ensemble support has emerged regarding the
eventual landfall of "Beryl" in far southern TX early next week.
The overall pattern looks to favor the remnant low lifting
northeast mid-week, but some potential may exist for this to bring
at least a glancing blow of heavier rainfall to parts of western
AR and perhaps southeast OK. This is a long way out at this point,
but still bears watching in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Scattered to broken high clouds should remain common across the
CWA this afternoon as a shortwave moves east southeast through the
region. A few isolated light showers may be possible in Southeast
Oklahoma through the afternoon. Cloud cover is forecast to
scatter out this evening and overnight from north to south with
Southeast Oklahoma the last to clear Saturday morning. Winds
through the period start out north to northwest and become
variable tonight. VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  67  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   92  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   87  66  91  69 /  40  10  10   0
BVO   88  62  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   88  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   87  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  66  91  68 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   87  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  66  90  67 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   87  69  90  69 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20