545
FXUS64 KTSA 042333
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Both excessive heat and thunderstorm/severe weather concerns will
continue into the evening hours of your Independence Day for most
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Regarding the heat, the existing Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning will be left alone for now, with most of the area seeing
heat index values in the triple digits. It remains expected that
portions of the advisory and/or warning may be able to be
cancelled early, depending on how early thunderstorm development
occurs this afternoon/evening.

Now for the thunderstorm and severe weather expectations, the
overall thinking from earlier today remains largely intact, with
CAMs consistently showing development mid to late this afternoon
along a pre-frontal wind shift, followed by early to mid evening
development to the north along the cold front, which will sweep
southward overnight. A peek at the structure of the CU out our
west windows reinforces the likelihood of the aforementioned mid
to late afternoon development. DCAPE and forecast soundings
remain supportive of a largely damaging wind threat, although
effective bulk shear values and high CAPE could also lead to a
hail threat. Overall, the severe weather threat should decrease
toward early Friday morning, although the lightning threat will
not be as quick to wane. Heavy rainfall remains a concern as well
given the high precipitable water values present.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Much more pleasant conditions are expected to persist from
tomorrow well into next week in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal
passage, with temperatures nearer to seasonal normals and lower
dew points. Showers and thunderstorms should linger to some extent
post-daybreak tomorrow to the south of I-40, with a likelihood of
little to no severe weather potential remaining. Dry weather
should extend from tomorrow night through Saturday night, but the
dry period will likely be short lived, given persistent troughing
expected to be in the vicinity allowing for multiple disturbances
to move through the area. In addition, moisture should steadily
climb, especially in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
through next week. The combination of the increased moisture and
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through at least mid week. Sunday night and into
Monday remains the most likely time frame for extensive
thunderstorms from MCS activity, including some severe weather
and heavy rain/flooding potential, although those details remain
somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect any of the TAF
sites this evening into the early overnight hours as a cold front
sags slowly south across the area. VFR conditions will prevail
outside of storm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  66  93 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   75  92  68  94 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   72  88  65  92 /  70  30   0  10
BVO   65  88  61  92 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   69  88  62  92 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   69  86  62  90 /  70   0   0   0
MKO   70  87  65  90 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   66  85  63  90 /  70   0   0   0
F10   70  86  65  90 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   73  87  68  89 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063-
     064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05