689
FXUS64 KTSA 051120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A welcome reprieve from day after day of heat headlines starts
today, courtesy of a cold front that continues to push through
eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning. A few clusters of
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible within the frontal
zone through today as it pushes southward, but any storms should
remain sub-severe. Drier airmass over the central plains will
eventually move south with widespread dew points in the 60s. Much
better.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The drier airmass with clearing skies will allow for a pleasantly
cool night tonight, with most areas falling into the lower-mid
60s. This type of regime often results in low temps below the
NBM and closer to traditional MOS numbers, which have been
favored for lows tonight. Dry weather will continue through
Saturday with daytime highs closer to normal.

With a high amplitude and strong ridge setting up over the western
CONUS, a broad upper trough remains established over the plains,
the next several days should feature near to slightly below normal
temperatures, and periodic thunderstorm chances returning later
in the weekend through a good part of next week. The Sunday night
into Monday period remains favored for more extensive storm
coverage, with some organized severe potential and heavy rainfall
threat during that time.

A fair amount of ensemble support has emerged regarding the
eventual landfall of "Beryl" in far southern TX early next week.
The overall pattern looks to favor the remnant low lifting
northeast mid-week, but some potential may exist for this to bring
at least a glancing blow of heavier rainfall to parts of western
AR and perhaps southeast OK. This is a long way out at this point,
but still bears watching in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A slow-moving storm complex over central OK is moving in the
general direction of KMLC so a TEMPO was inserted for storm
conditions reducing vsbys blo VFR thru 18Z. IFR cigs are occurring
now at KMLC just ahead of the front but shouldn`t last long. VFR
conditions are expected elsewhere with some increase in north
winds today.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  67  92  71 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   92  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   87  66  91  69 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   88  62  92  67 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   88  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   87  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  66  91  68 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   87  63  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  66  90  67 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   87  69  90  69 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30