067
FXUS64 KTSA 031902
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
202 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of eastern OK
and west-central AR with a Heat Advisory in effect for the remainder
of the area. Heat indices are currently in the 100-110F range,
and will climb to 105-115F. A few lingering showers will remain
possible into this evening near the KS border by a stationary
boundary. CAM guidance remains inconsistent, but does indicate at
least a 10-20% chance of a few showers and storms forming further
south towards a line from roughly Tulsa to Miami later this
afternoon or evening. Otherwise, tonight will be another unusually
mild night with lows in the mid 70s to near 80 F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Excessive heat continues south of the previously mentioned boundary
near the KS border into Independence Day (Thursday). Reissued
Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of eastern OK and west-
central AR with Heat Advisories elsewhere. A cold front will
overtake and advance the stationary boundary during the evening
with a good chance of thunderstorms developing at that time,
especially for northeast OK and northwest AR. The setup will favor
storms capable of producing heavy rain and strong downburst
winds. The SPC has noted a 15-30% chance of damaging wind gusts in
the area with the WPC showing a 5-15% of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding. Considering the PWAT values of near 2",
low level water vapor near the 99th percentile, strong CAPE, and
weak wind shear, these outlooks make sense. The storms and
associated outflow will move into southeast OK Friday morning and
out of the area by the afternoon.

Behind the front we can expect a reprieve from the heat and humidity
with high temperatures falling into the mid 80s to low 90s (Friday
and Saturday). Low temperatures will into the 60s to low 70s. As
southerly flow returns Sunday, temperatures and moisture levels
will try to climb again. However, there is uncertainty with how
quickly this will occur, with the NBM temperature probabilities
showing a relatively large spread Sunday. Even so, considering we
will have a cooler upper atmosphere and a renewed chance of rain
as the upper level trough axis digs favorably into the region,
high temperatures will most likely stay confined to the mid 80s to
lower 90s. In terms of timing, rain will be possible for most of
the Saturday night to Tuesday period, but ensemble guidance shows
later Sunday and Monday as the most likely (30-50% chance of
rain). Ensemble cluster analysis depicts sizable uncertainty with
how far south the trough will dig during this period, but the
more it can dig to the southwest the higher our probability for
rain will be. For the middle to end of next week we look to keep
the upper level trough overhead so near normal temperatures with
at least some chance of rain will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, although the
expectation of isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon/evening and again overnight, would
likely bring brief category reductions if they occur on station.
BVO is the most likely terminal for this to occur, with 06-12Z
being the main time frame. This potential will be covered with a
PROB30 group. TUL/RVS and also FYV/XNA/ROG could also be impacted
this afternoon/early evening but with questions regarding
coverage, will cover with either a VCSH or VCTS mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 100  69  89 /  30  40  50  10
FSM   80 100  74  91 /   0  20  60  20
MLC   79  99  72  88 /   0  20  60  20
BVO   73  97  65  87 /  40  40  40  10
FYV   75  97  68  86 /  10  30  60  10
BYV   74  97  68  86 /  30  40  60  10
MKO   77  98  70  88 /  10  30  60  10
MIO   74  96  66  85 /  40  50  50  10
F10   77  99  69  88 /  10  30  70  20
HHW   77  97  73  90 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>059-
     063-064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ060>062-066-067-070>072-074-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22