302
FXUS64 KTSA 040743
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today/Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hopefully this will be the last day of heat headlines through
at least early next week. Dangerous heat/humidity is again
expected this afternoon, ahead of cold front, with heat indices
climbing into the 105-112 deg range. A few showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible this morning across
far northeast Oklahoma but no severe weather is expected.

Cold front is forecast to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma
by mid afternoon, most likely located over Pawnee/Osage and
Washington counties. A moderately unstable air-mass is expected
along and south of boundary with MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/kg. Deep
layer shear will also begin to increase as upper jet streak shifts
into the central Plains.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop ahead of frontal
boundary, with storms moving to near the I-44 corridor by late
afternoon. Some of these storms will likely be severe (70% chance of
multiple warnings) with damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph and
marginally severe hail. Storms will likely become more linear with
time, as cold pool develops, with broken line segments moving into
east-central Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this evening. Severe
threat should diminish by late evening with the loss of heating and
as storms push south away from the stronger upper level forcing.
Some indications there could be few storms redevelop across portions
of northeast Oklahoma near or just north of front, but this is less
certain. In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall
will be likely as PWAT values climb to around 2.00 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across
far southeast Oklahoma Friday morning before cold front pushes
south. A welcome break from the heat/humidity expected behind the
front with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak
surface high pressure builds into the region into Saturday as
northwest flow aloft continues.

Both GFS/ECMWF still suggest the potential for an MCS to move into
portions of Oklahoma Sunday evening/overnight as stronger upper wave
dives southeast into the central Plains. Obviously there is still
some uncertainty regarding evolution, however strongest storms
may remain west of area in the deeper moisture/instability axis.
Regardless, precipitation chances will increase, especially
across northeast Oklahoma.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal into the early to
middle part of next week as west to northwest flow aloft persists.
Remnants of Beryl should remain mainly south of area during this
time, but increasing low level moisture will likely allow for at
least scattered, mainly afternoon/evening storms across SE OK/NW
AR both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR and tranquil conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight
tonight with just a few-sct mid/high clouds through the morning
hours. A frontal boundary will remain stationary along the OK/KS
border, with precipitation/convection forecast to remain just
north of the boundary and north of the forecast area through at
least the morning hours today. The frontal boundary is expected to
slowly advance southward late this afternoon and into this
evening and will be the focus area for additional convection
development in its vicinity as it pushes southward. Maintained
Prob30 groups at the NE OK and NW AR terminals (beginning around
21z) and added Prob30 groups for the rest of the terminals between
00-06z. Organized thunderstorms that are able to move or develop
over the aerodromes will be capable of strong, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall, likely lowering ceilings and reducing visibilities
for a brief period. Otherwise, VFR is anticipated to prevail at
all TAF sites through the period.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  69  90  67 /  70  50   0   0
FSM  100  75  92  69 /  30  70  10   0
MLC   99  72  88  66 /  20  60  20  10
BVO   96  65  89  63 /  40  40   0   0
FYV   97  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
BYV   98  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
MKO   98  70  87  65 /  40  70  10   0
MIO   96  66  87  63 /  50  60   0   0
F10   99  69  87  65 /  40  60  10   0
HHW   97  73  88  68 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-063-064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67