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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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789 FXUS64 KTSA 041130 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today/Tonight) Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Hopefully this will be the last day of heat headlines through at least early next week. Dangerous heat/humidity is again expected this afternoon, ahead of cold front, with heat indices climbing into the 105-112 deg range. A few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible this morning across far northeast Oklahoma but no severe weather is expected. Cold front is forecast to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon, most likely located over Pawnee/Osage and Washington counties. A moderately unstable air-mass is expected along and south of boundary with MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear will also begin to increase as upper jet streak shifts into the central Plains. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop ahead of frontal boundary, with storms moving to near the I-44 corridor by late afternoon. Some of these storms will likely be severe (70% chance of multiple warnings) with damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph and marginally severe hail. Storms will likely become more linear with time, as cold pool develops, with broken line segments moving into east-central Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this evening. Severe threat should diminish by late evening with the loss of heating and as storms push south away from the stronger upper level forcing. Some indications there could be few storms redevelop across portions of northeast Oklahoma near or just north of front, but this is less certain. In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely as PWAT values climb to around 2.00 inches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far southeast Oklahoma Friday morning before cold front pushes south. A welcome break from the heat/humidity expected behind the front with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak surface high pressure builds into the region into Saturday as northwest flow aloft continues. Both GFS/ECMWF still suggest the potential for an MCS to move into portions of Oklahoma Sunday evening/overnight as stronger upper wave dives southeast into the central Plains. Obviously there is still some uncertainty regarding evolution, however strongest storms may remain west of area in the deeper moisture/instability axis. Regardless, precipitation chances will increase, especially across northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal into the early to middle part of next week as west to northwest flow aloft persists. Remnants of Beryl should remain mainly south of area during this time, but increasing low level moisture will likely allow for at least scattered, mainly afternoon/evening storms across SE OK/NW AR both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Overall, VFR is expected to prevail at all terminal sites through the next 24 hours. A frontal boundary will advance southward into eastern OK and northwest AR this afternoon/evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary beginning late this afternoon. Maintained PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at the NE OK and NW AR terminals (beginning around 21z) and between 00-06z for the rest of the TAF sites. Organized thunderstorms that are able to move or develop over the aerodromes will be capable of strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall, likely lowering ceilings and reducing visibilities for a brief period. Latest hi- res models show additional showers/storms developing after midnight across portions of eastern OK and northwest AR. Did add -SHRA at MLC and all of the AR terminals beyond 06z, though confidence of coverage and timing are low at this time. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 69 90 67 / 70 50 0 0 FSM 100 75 92 69 / 30 70 10 0 MLC 99 72 88 66 / 20 60 20 10 BVO 96 65 89 63 / 40 40 0 0 FYV 97 68 87 63 / 40 70 10 0 BYV 98 68 87 63 / 40 70 10 0 MKO 98 70 87 65 / 40 70 10 0 MIO 96 66 87 63 / 50 60 0 0 F10 99 69 87 65 / 40 60 10 0 HHW 97 73 88 68 / 0 50 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063-064-068-069-075. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...67