453
FXUS64 KTSA 081915
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Main focus through the remainder of the afternoon and this
evening will be on the impacts from Tropical Cyclone Beryl, now
classified as a Tropical Storm per the National Hurricane Center,
as it continues to push northward across eastern TX and
eventually curving northeastward into the ArkLaTex region by
tonight. Convective banding has already initiated from daytime
heating in portions of west-central AR and southeast OK.
Moderate to locally heavy downpours in the bands will continue to
slowly spread northward with time. Although the best severe
parameters are forecast to stay southeast/east of the forecast
area, with MUCAPE values 1500-2000 J/kg and DCAPE values 500-1000
J/kg, a few storms may be strong and capable of sub-severe gusty
winds this afternoon into the early evening hours.

A bigger concern will be moderate to heavy tropical rainfall that
may lead to flooding/flash flooding tonight. Latest SPC
mesoanalysis shows PWATs steadily increasing across the forecast
area, with values now around or just above 2.0 inches in far
southeast OK. With clashing northerly flow across much of the
area, storm motion vectors indicate convection will be relatively
slow-moving this afternoon and bands will be capable of producing
very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. As a result of this
thinking, the WPC has expanded the SLGT Risk, with at least a 15%
chance of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance, a little
farther northwestward to near the I-44 corridor in their Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The more persistent heavier
rainfall is still expected to fall across southeast OK and west-
central/northwest AR late tonight and into Tuesday morning as
Beryls center moves over the ArkLaTex region. Will maintain the
current Flood Watch timing, but did add Adair County in OK as well
as Benton County in AR to the Watch, mainly due a swath of HREF
probabilities of 40-60% receiving >= 2 inches for majority of
both counties. Still expecting total rainfall amounts generally
ranging from 2 to 4 inches, locally higher, in the Flood Watch
area through midday Tuesday.

Finally for the short-term, wind speeds across far southeast OK
and west-central AR will pick up this evening and overnight
tonight as Beryl moves into the ArkLaTex region. Some of the
higher speeds/gusts will be concentrated in the higher terrain in
southeast OK overnight tonight where occasional to frequent gusts
35-40 mph will be possible. Otherwise and elsewhere in the
forecast area, temperatures will fall into the mid-upper 60s under
mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Moderate to heavy rain is forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the long-term period, mostly affecting far southeastern OK and
northwest AR through at least midday Tuesday. Consensus in model
guidance kicks majority of the rain, especially the heavier rain,
out of the forecast area by early afternoon as a mid-level trough
carries the remnants of Beryl northeastward and out of the
forecast area. Quieter and much more benign weather is anticipated
after Tuesday as the trough axis shifts east and mid/upper-level
ridging tries to penetrate over much of OK. Although models keep
most of the area rain-free through the remainder of the week, weak
perturbations in the northwest flow aloft may try to allow
diurnally-driven spotty shower/storms for portions of the forecast
area Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the main storyline will be
a gradual warming trend that will persist into the upcoming
weekend and into early next week, with widespread high
temperatures returning into the mid-upper 90s and lower 100s by
Saturday. More heat headlines appear likely towards the end of the
week through early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will tend to deteriorate this afternoon and evening
as showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage across E OK & NW
AR from south to north. Will likely see some stronger winds and
periods of MVFR (perhaps IFR) conditions for sites affected by
precip this afternoon/ evening... especially for FSM & MLC. Precip
will likely become more widespread and steady tonight into
tomorrow morning with cigs & vsbys forecast to fall into MVFR/ IFR
category, primarily across SE OK & NW AR sites. Rain may be heavy
at times tonight into tomorrow morning. LLWS is expected late in
the period for NW AR sites. Flight conditions should improve
tomorrow morning across E OK and by the afternoon hours in NW AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  66  93 /  40  20   0   0
FSM   69  85  66  92 /  80  60  10   0
MLC   67  85  65  92 /  40  20   0   0
BVO   65  88  63  92 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   65  81  61  89 /  70  70  10   0
BYV   65  78  61  87 /  80  80  10   0
MKO   67  85  65  91 /  40  30   0   0
MIO   68  83  63  89 /  60  40   0   0
F10   66  86  64  92 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   67  85  66  90 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for OKZ049-053-069-072-
     074>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43