Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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835 FXUS64 KTSA 271725 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today will feature a minor break in the heat compared to the past several days. Most forecast parameters look good at the moment, however current dew point trends do favor higher values than NBM and closer to NAM12 values. Have adjusted dew points up a few degrees, though this still keeps Heat Index values below 100 for the most part. Different story tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Isolated convection may affect parts of mainly northeast Oklahoma late tonight/early Friday morning and again late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Otherwise, the heat will return for Friday and Saturday with the excessive heat watch continuing for parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Much of the rest of the area will likely need heat headlines as well both Friday and Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up late Saturday and especially Saturday night and Sunday as a weak frontal boundary pushes south into the area. Much of the area will see another brief respite from the heat again Sunday as a result. The heat will return in full force early next week, although the NBM numbers look a bit excessive especially given recent and possible future rainfall. Lowered afternoon highs slightly as a result early next week, but heat headlines will likely be needed again regardless. Another weak frontal boundary will increase shower and storm chances again later next week, likely just in time for the Independence Day holiday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There remains a small chance that a weakening cluster of thunderstorms could move across southern Kansas and potentially into parts of far northeast OK late tonight and early Friday morning, but probability of significant impacts at any site are 20% or less. South winds will increase mid-morning Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 93 77 98 81 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 94 71 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 93 74 96 78 / 0 0 10 0 BVO 92 73 98 77 / 10 20 20 20 FYV 91 69 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 BYV 90 68 95 75 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 92 73 95 78 / 0 0 10 0 MIO 91 72 94 77 / 0 10 10 20 F10 91 73 96 77 / 0 10 10 0 HHW 92 71 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...14