453
FXUS64 KTSA 291730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few high-based showers occurred earlier this morning, but have
mostly dissipated. Overall expect a decrease in cloud cover into
the afternoon with dangerously hot and humid conditions
persisting. Latest data continues to support max heat indices in
the 110-114 range in a broad corridor through much of eastern OK
into the Arkansas River Valley, where heat warning remains in
effect. Given current trends will not issue a forecast update at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A frontal boundary will slowly and gradually push southward near
the I-40 corridor this evening/tonight. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing from late this
afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may
persist through the late evening/overnight hours, though
instability should decrease as the evening/night progresses.

A brief relief from the heat will occur on Sunday as the cold
front continues to sag southward through the forecast area as
widespread scattered showers/storms and cloud cover aid in the
cool down. A few models show a significant cool down, with the
ADJMET producing some of the coolest values of max temperatures
reaching the upper 70s/80s for most locations. Opted not to drop
temperatures quite that low at this time, but did knock
temperatures a couple of degrees lower than what the operational
NBM shows.

Mid/upper-level ridging will quickly begin to build back overhead
Sunday night into Monday. As such, precipitation chances also
significantly decrease Tuesday approaches. Did include a slight
chance of diurnally-driven showers/storms Monday afternoon, mainly
across southeast OK/west-central AR, as Sunday`s cold front lifts
back northward as a warm front. Otherwise, heat headlines are
expected to return through at least the middle part of next week.
By mid- late part of next week, trends in model guidance show
another weak cold front approaching from the north, which may
increase precipitation chances at the tail-end of next week into
next weekend. If this verifies, it would bring in a small relief
from the heat.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through today and a good portion of
tonight. Scattered storms are expected to develop along a frontal
boundary moving into northeast OK around 00z, with storms
developing into part of northwest AR later this evening. Overall
storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but gusty winds are
possible with a few, and any direct impact could result in brief
IFR conditions at NE OK and NW AR sites this evening. Data
suggests increasing probability of MVFR ceilings spreading into
NE OK and NW AR early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  76  90  76 /  20  40  30  10
FSM  100  79  95  76 /   0  20  60  10
MLC   98  77  94  74 /   0  20  40  10
BVO   98  70  85  71 /  20  60  30  10
FYV   98  73  89  69 /  10  30  60  10
BYV   98  73  87  68 /  20  50  50  10
MKO   97  76  91  75 /  10  30  40  10
MIO   97  70  85  71 /  20  60  40  10
F10   98  75  91  74 /  10  20  40  10
HHW   95  78  96  75 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14