Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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363 FXUS64 KTSA 301137 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Latest surface analysis across the region indicates a subtle frontal boundary along or just north of the OK/KS border early this morning. Much of the convection associated with this boundary and a weak mid-level perturbation currently remains across southern KS and far northern OK. CAMs show this elevated convection gradually drifting southeastward into the forecast area over the next few hours and persisting through the morning hours before subsiding/dissipating sometime around midday. Little to no impacts are expected with the convection. High pressure, currently centered over the Northern/Central Plains, is forecast to shift slightly southward and help push the cold front through the northern half of the forecast area this morning, likely stalling in the vicinity or just south of I-40 by midday or so. Biggest challenge was determining today`s temperatures given a high model spread in guidance due to the presence of the cold front. Will continue to lean more toward the NBM solution, suggesting temperatures warm up into the mid-upper 80s to near 90 along and north of I-44 and into the low-mid 90s elsewhere. Despite the front, dewpoint temperatures will remain relatively high this afternoon, generally ranging from the mid- upper 70s in most locations. Latest HREF data show about a 40-60% chance of Heat Advisory criteria being met for at least a few hours along and south of I-40. With that said, was confident enough to go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for southeast OK and west-central AR from noon until 7 PM this evening. Instability will increase again by early-mid afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. There should be enough lift and instability near the boundary to produce isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon through the early-mid evening hours. Overall, the thunderstorm activity this afternoon is expected to stay sub-severe as bulk shear remains weak and lapse rates stay below 7C/km this afternoon, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 As surface high pressure advances eastward towards the Great Lakes region on Monday, Sunday`s frontal boundary will lift back northward as a warm front, with modest to strong WAA pushing into the forecast area by Monday afternoon behind it. There could be a few diurnally-driven isolated showers and storms that form Monday afternoon as a result. Convection should stay very spotty and short-lived as mid-level ridging dominates overhead. Otherwise, oppressive heat is anticipated to return and intensify through the first half of the week next week. Additional heat headlines will likely be needed, especially Monday-Thursday. Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to shift over the Southeast CONUS by Wednesday as an upper-level trough works its way over the Northern Plains. As a result, another weak surface frontal boundary will approach the forecast area from the north, helping to increase rain chances across northeast OK and northwest AR during the daytime. Still lots of uncertainty with the evolution of the front, with consensus in models currently suggesting it stalls just north of the area Wednesday and Thursday, then have it finally pushing through the region on Friday. The front is expected to bring in a chance of showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) late Thursday night through Friday night as it pushes into the area. Guidance also suggests the front brings a much needed cool down by next weekend, dropping temps closer to seasonal average. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A few light rain showers will continue in the KBVO area through mid morning. Heavier rainfall potential will likely remain north and west of NE OK TAF sites. Scattered thunderstorms still possible this afternoon near boundary, forecast to be located near the I-40 corridor, potentially impacting KMLC/KFSM with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are general expected through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 90 76 96 78 / 20 10 10 0 FSM 95 76 92 71 / 50 20 10 0 MLC 93 75 95 76 / 30 30 10 0 BVO 87 71 94 76 / 20 20 10 0 FYV 92 70 91 69 / 40 10 10 0 BYV 89 68 88 66 / 40 10 10 0 MKO 92 75 92 74 / 30 20 10 0 MIO 85 71 92 73 / 20 20 20 0 F10 90 74 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 HHW 94 76 93 75 / 20 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...12