Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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843 FXUS64 KTSA 011131 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Recent regional surface obs/analysis show a nearly-stationary frontal boundary, draped west-to-east near the I-40 corridor early this morning. As a 1027mb surface high pressure (currently centered over the Great Lakes region) continues to advance eastward today, the weak boundary is forecast to become more north/south oriented and lift northeastward as a warm front across the forecast area through the daytime. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, this frontal zone is expected to act as a corridor of higher dewpoints as well as isolated/scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Any shower/storm that develops will likely be short-lived and mostly non-impactful. Strong ridging aloft will allow temperatures to rise into the mid-upper 90s for most locations across eastern OK and west-central AR. As such, another dangerously hot and humid day will transpire across most of the forecast area today, with the exception being in the higher terrain areas in northwest AR and southeast OK. Upgraded part of the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for locations (generally) along and west of Highway 69 in OK, where dewpoints are forecast to range between 75-80F through much of the afternoon. Another change made to the Heat Advisory was adding Ottawa and Cherokee counties in OK. Both the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect at noon today and continue through 9 PM this evening. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Mid/upper-level ridging will strengthen and begin to shift eastward over the southeastern CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days will remain (mostly) dry with strong subsidence occurring aloft. Unseasonably hot and humid conditions will remain the center of focus Tuesday through Thursday, with heat headlines likely needed each day. Ridging begins to breakdown and weaken beginning Wednesday evening/night as a low-amplitude trough tries to push into the Plains. Medium-range forecast models show another frontal boundary pushing into the Central Plains on Wednesday, with guidance suggesting the boundary becomes stationary, remaining north of the forecast area Wednesday through most of Thursday. Lift and moisture pooling along the front may cause showers and thunderstorms to form Wednesday north of the forecast area. However, low PoPs (10-30%) were maintained along the KS/OK and AR/MO borders as a few storms/outflow boundaries may penetrate the northern-tier of the forecast area on Wednesday and into Thursday morning, but most locations are expected to remain hot and dry. A better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur beginning late Thursday night through Friday as the cold front is forecast to advance southward through the forecast area. Although widespread severe chances are not high, storms that form with the front Thursday night into Friday may be strong or marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall may also occur with the storms. With that said, there remains uncertainty with strength and position of the cold at this time and adjustments to the forecast are likely over the next few days. If the forecast verifies, temperatures will trend closer to seasonal average Friday and Saturday, with ridging building back in by Sunday. Mejia && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Forecast remains on track this morning. Frontal boundary is starting to lift north and will become diffuse this afternoon with south winds developing. Upper ridge will remain over the region and although an isolated shower/thunderstorm will be possible, overall precip coverage still appears too low to include at this time. Scattered mid/high clouds will persist across NE OK/NW AR with a few afternoon CU possible elsewhere. VFR conditions are generally expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 80 100 81 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 94 74 98 78 / 20 10 0 0 MLC 97 77 98 78 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 95 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 92 71 95 76 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 90 69 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 MKO 93 76 97 78 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 93 74 97 78 / 20 0 0 10 F10 95 77 98 78 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 94 76 97 78 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-057-058-062-068-072-076. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>056-059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...12