229
FXUS64 KTSA 050511
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Loss of daytime heating has allowed storms across the
area to weaken over the last hour or so but a few strong storms
will remain possible over the next few hours. Scattered
coverage will likely continue into the overnight hours along and
ahead of the cold front as it pushes further south into SE OK
and WC AR. Made a few adjustments to PoPs and sky cover based on
latest trends through 06z. PoPs in the 06z-12z time period pretty
much will be left as is, but did make a few tweaks to sky cover.
Temperatures in the overnight period look reasonable and will not
adjust at this time. Remaining first period elements will be left as
they are.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM already sent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Much more pleasant conditions are expected to persist from
tomorrow well into next week in the wake of tonight`s cold frontal
passage, with temperatures nearer to seasonal normals and lower
dew points. Showers and thunderstorms should linger to some extent
post-daybreak tomorrow to the south of I-40, with a likelihood of
little to no severe weather potential remaining. Dry weather
should extend from tomorrow night through Saturday night, but the
dry period will likely be short lived, given persistent troughing
expected to be in the vicinity allowing for multiple disturbances
to move through the area. In addition, moisture should steadily
climb, especially in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
through next week. The combination of the increased moisture and
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through at least mid week. Sunday night and into
Monday remains the most likely time frame for extensive
thunderstorms from MCS activity, including some severe weather
and heavy rain/flooding potential, although those details remain
somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of a low chance of direct tsra
impact to an airport. Sct to bkn mid and high cloud can be
expected thru the period with north winds developing on Friday in
the wake of a front. Gusts may occasionally exceed 15 kts in some
spots.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  66  93  71 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   88  65  92  69 /  30   0  10   0
BVO   88  61  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   88  62  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   86  62  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  65  90  68 /  10   0   0  10
MIO   85  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   86  65  90  67 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   87  68  89  69 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30