897
FXUS63 KTOP 110516
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off rain and thunderstorm chances persist mainly during
  the overnight into morning hours for much of this week, with
  the highest chances (50-90%) being late Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

- Cool temperatures continue through Tuesday, then closer to
  seasonal norms Wednesday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The forecast area is left within quasi-zonal flow aloft between a
broad upper low spinning over Ontario and a ridge over the Southern
Plains. Sfc high pressure remains centered in eastern KS. Weak
isentropic lift has allowed for some light rain and sprinkles to
continue into early this afternoon mainly south of I-70. Lift should
weaken into this evening to allow for a dry period before isentropic
upglide increases again overnight into Sunday morning. The best lift
looks to arrive after 3-4am, but forecast soundings still show some
low-level dry air even past sunrise, so rain amounts should remain
light. While the bulk of the rain looks to move out before mid-day,
there may be just enough ascent to keep light rain going into the
afternoon in eastern portions of the area. However, the ARW seems to
be the most robust on that idea, whereas most other CAMs are
generally dry after noon.

Sunday night into Monday morning, we look to be stuck between two
different regimes. The better shortwave energy is progged to pass
north of us through Nebraska within the main westerlies and upper
jet, and a 40kt LLJ is progged to develop from OK through
southeast/east-central KS. The shortwave looks to trigger a complex
of thunderstorms off the High Plains, which may develop into an MCS
as it moves through Nebraska, entering northern KS around midnight.
Depending on how well it maintains strength as it approaches the
area, damaging wind gusts could be possible with these storms. The
LLJ should efficiently transport moisture into the area, helping to
push the axis of 2" Pwat into eastern KS. This would provide
opportunity for locally heavy rainfall with storms moving through
during the overnight into Monday morning.

The batch of Monday morning rain moves east of the area by late
morning, paving the way for dry conditions into the afternoon. The
baroclinic zone looks to hang around the area through at least
Thursday with weak disturbances aloft, keeping thunderstorm chances
around mainly during the late night and early morning hours.
Confidence in location for the best chances become lower beyond
Monday as this will depend in part on the exact placement of the
surface boundary with each passing wave. Cooler temperatures look to
prevail through Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Stronger WAA
into Wednesday brings daytime temperatures closer to normal for
August with highs mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Cigs should trend lower overall through the period. Still
keeping VFR for now as potential for showers look limited into
the early and mid morning hours. The saturated layer looks
fairly shallow but there is some lift with a minor shortwave
working over the vicinity. Not anticipating long lasting
precipitation if it can be sustained but should pass the area
around midday into the early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake