Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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519 FXUS63 KTOP 281122 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms move east through during the early morning hours - The heat returns into the afternoon, and a heat advisory is in effect for portions of central and east central Kansas - Severe Storms are possible later this afternoon into the evening hours with all modes of severe weather possible - An unsettled patter brings intermittent rain and storm chances through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the forecast area early this morning, bringing some locally heavy rain and wind gusts in the 40 mph range as they pass. These storms move east through the early to mid morning hours, and the heat will make a return as the rain moves east. A heat advisory is in effect for this afternoon for western and southern areas of the forecast area. The strong southerly return flow ahead of the northern tier trof is quick to bring back strong instability and moisture with over 3000J/kg of CAPE and 40kts of bulk shear by this afternoon. Hodographs are supportive of supercells if there is enough convergence to generate thunderstorms - and if they form along the boundary then a tornado threat can`t be ruled out given low level enhancement to the wind profile. Most convective models suggest storms do develop in the 3-5pm timeframe generally along and around I70 and move eastward. Another round of storms is possible later in the evening and overnight as storms develop along the western coldfront and move southeast into the high plains of western and central Kansas, with wind and hail the primary hazards. Most of the area gets a reprieve for the weekend as cooler air behind the front continues to drop southward into the area, with highs in the 80s on Saturday, with upper 70s to 80s for highs on Sunday. Better rain chances look to remain south of the area. Unfortunately the hot temperatures don`t go far, and the ridge noses back northward on Monday for a fast return back to the 90s with some 100s possible on Tuesday. The area remains in an active flow pattern, either with passing upper trofs over the state, or more zonal flow keeping frontal boundaries nearby. This looks to bring the area back into the 90s for the mid to late week, but also keeps rain chances lingering in the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Morning showers are slow to clear eastern Kansas this morning but should have minimal impact on terminals. Main concern continues to be if storms can redevelop later this afternoon since some guidance develops it very close to I70 with all hazards possible. Will hold with VCTS, with better timing likely by the next TAF issuance, and to see if timing of a second round is necessary later tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058. && $$ DISCUSSION...Craven AVIATION...Craven