529
FXUS63 KTOP 110659
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated thunderstorm over far northeast KS may be capable
  of some damaging winds and hail.

- Confidence in a heat wave impacting the region is good. Highs
  look to be in the triple digits for most areas Sun-Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Great
Lakes with ridging centered over the desert southwest. A
shortwave was rotating through the middle MO river valley.
Surface obs showed a weak pattern with weak high pressure over
the Great Plains. A trough of low pressure along the northern
high plains was gradually deepening.

For tonight through Thursday evening, models show a conditionally
unstable airmass remaining in place with little inhibition to
convection. Any forcing or lift looks to remain subtle but think the
wave over eastern NEB and IA could be enough for some isolated
convection overnight. Forecast soundings show storms should be
rooted near 800MB with elevated CAPE around 1100 J/kg. Bulk shear
looks rather marginal so think the risk for severe weather remains
marginal at best. Can`t rule out an isolated storm with some
damaging winds though. A similar setup is progged by Thursday
evening but the forcing looks even less obvious. Models do have a
weak wind shift develop over northeast KS which may act as a focus
for some low level lift. But CAMs show isolated convection at best
and the NAM/GFS tend to keep QPF just east of the area. Have kept
POPs around 10 percent after collaboration but later shifts may want
to add a slight chance to the forecast.

The main focus of the forecast will be the building heat through the
weekend and into next week. Confidence in highs around 100 is
improving as operational models show the upper ridge over the
southwest expanding east over the central plains. This lines up well
with the initialization from the NBM. As for headline concerns,
the main question is whether dewpoints mix out into the lower
60s or possible the upper 50s. In the end this may keep heat
indices a few degrees cooler and have hedged the forecast with
dewpoints mixing out more. Still we see heat indicies around
105. So will start messaging the heat a little stronger. Precip
chances look pretty slim with upper ridging and see no reason
to deviate from the NBM initialization. The next organized
chance for precip looks to be Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Models show shortwave energy passing across the northern plains
and dampening the upper ridge, allowing a weak boundary to slide
into the forecast area. Lift from the boundary could allow from
some precip to develop and have some chance POPs for this
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area
over the first portion of the TAF period. Added mention of VCTS
through the early morning hours this morning to account for
this. Otherwise, winds will remain light and out of the east
with mid level clouds scattering out into the afternoon today.
There will be more chance for pop-up thunderstorms later in the
TAF, but have kept mention out at this time due to lack of
confidence.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Griesemer