463
FNUS75 KTFX 142304
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Black Mountain...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
504 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A brief period of ridging early Thursday will give way to
southwesterly flow aloft Thursday afternoon. A disturbance in this
flow will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon and into the overnight Thursday night. The chance
for one-quarter of an inch worth of precipitation through Thursday
night is around 60%. Showers and more isolated thunderstorms
persist into Friday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent), becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....73-78.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Slope/valley flow around 5 mph, through
                    mid-morning, becoming East up to 5 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Southeast around 5 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely through the night. Chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................50 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........78-83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Down slope/valley around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southeast around 5 mph.


.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........36-41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Jordan Bloxham
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2419200.75/TFX
.DELDT 08/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jbloxham@blm.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov