073
FNUS75 KTFX 142306
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...DNRC County Assist Team
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
506 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on August 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A brief period of upper level ridging builds in tonight allowing
for a brief dry spell in wake of isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The ridging is
quickly displaced by an upper level disturbance arriving late
Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be around
Thursday afternoon, with better chances for precipitation arriving
Thursday evening and overnight.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance for
                    a shower or thunderstorm early evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Down slope/valley around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........North around 10 mph, becoming light and variable.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny, with increasing clouds late day. Isolated
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....75-80.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Up slope/valley around 5 mph after sunrise,
                    becoming east-southeast around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    likely overnight, with a chance of thunderstorms
                    through the night.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Max humidity........69-74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........East 5 to 10 mph increasing to south 20 to 25
                    mph early in the evening.

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Tom Kohley
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2420044.5/TFX
.DELDT 08/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tom_kohley@firenet.gov,mtgdc@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov