138
FNUS75 KTFX 152310
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Black Mountain...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
510 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow aloft will allow for another round of primarily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms around the wildfire Friday into early
Friday night. Upper level ridging builds in for Saturday, allowing
for a dry day, though an afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot
quite be ruled out.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....51-56.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 5 mph.
Haines Index........

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....74-79.
Min humidity........19-24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Southwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Jordan Bloxham
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2419200.76/TFX
.DELDT 08/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jbloxham@blm.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov