159
FXUS65 KTFX 011948
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
148 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Below average temperatures will persist through at least July 4th,
with daily opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for most areas, especially for the plains. Thereafter,
a warming  and drying trend looks to commence, though how warm we
ultimately get this weekend is questionable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through the 4th of July... Broad upper level troughing across the
Northern Rockies will support a generally cooler than average period
through the 4th of July. Cool temperatures aloft will result in
afternoon and early evening instability across most areas today,
allowing for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The same
can be said for the next few days as well, though chances for
showers and thunderstorms will decrease for far southern portions of
Southwest Montana. Forecast soundings show little in the way of
shear through the week, hence current expectation is for impacts to
be limited to lightning, briefly gusty winds, and small hail with
the most robust thunderstorms. -AM

Friday through next Monday... A strong upper level ridge will begin
to build across the Southwestern US late this week, and will begin
to expand its influence to the Northwestern US by the weekend. As
this ridge builds, expect temperatures to gradually rise, with high
temperatures expected to push the low to mid 80s for the lower
elevations. There does remain some uncertainty as to the exact
strength, location, and shape of this ridge, however, which means
that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how
warm we are able to get (or even if we see much of a warm up for the
weekend, as there is about a 30% chance of this warm up being rather
insignificant). Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail for the most part through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late morning and be
around through the early evening. TEMPOs were added around the time
of highest probability for lightning at terminals, though mention of
sub-VFR conditions was omitted due to lack of confidence in them
occurring at terminals at this time. Lightning, briefly erratic winds
gusts and small hail will be the main concern with thunderstorms
that do form. Mountains may be obscured at times this TAF period. -AM

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  74  50  69 /  40  50  20  70
CTB  50  72  48  65 /  50  60  40  80
HLN  54  80  53  75 /  30  20  10  50
BZN  47  75  45  72 /  70  10   0  30
WYS  38  65  38  65 / 100  20   0  40
DLN  43  73  45  71 /  60   0   0  20
HVR  53  77  51  70 /  30  70  50  80
LWT  48  71  46  67 /  50  60  20  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls