606
FXUS65 KTFX 021140
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
afternoon on the 4th of July, with the best chance for
precipitation falling on Wednesday afternoon over North Central
MT. Overall, afternoon temperatures will generally be below normal
for the next few days, with Wednesday being the coolest day.
Looking ahead, there is a potential for a summer heat wave to
begin next week, along with generally drier conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...Two more cooler than normal days, along
with scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue over the CWA.
With an upper level trof slowly moving through the CWA over the
next 2 days, we will have a chance for scattered
showers/thunderstorms both days. As of now, Wednesday is looking
like a more likely day for precipitation, thus pops are near 90
percent for much of North Central MT. However, QPF amounts are
still rather low, with most areas only receiving between 0.10 and
0.20 inches of rainfall. In terms of thunderstorms, there is just
enough instability for scattered areas of lightning, and possibly
some small hail. However, the instability decreases each day
through Wednesday, so the chances for storms will also slowly
decrease each day as well. Because of the cloud cover/precip,
Wednesday is looking to be the coolest day in awhile, with some
locations over North Central MT having high temperatures only in
the 60s.

4th of July...The upper level ridge will try to move east of the
CWA today. However, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest
during the morning/afternoon hours. Thus there will be a small
chance for a light shower through late afternoon, the North
Central MT having the highest chances. By Thursday evening, enough
dry air should work in from the west, that most dry conditions are
expected for Thursday evening across the CWA.

Friday through Tuesday...A summer upper level ridge of high
pressure is forecast to build over the northern Rockies during
this period. The exact day in which the ridge builds seems to flop
a bit from day to day, but overall it looks like the ridge will
start to build in by next Mon/Tue. This will result in mostly dry
conditions developing over the weekend and continuing into early
next week. Additionally, afternoon temperatures will be on the
rise, with most areas averaging afternoon highs close to 10
degrees above normal by next Mon/Tue. Overall, do expect a rather
lengthy period of very warm to hot temperatures to start to
develop by early next week. Some long range forecast prog
afternoon temperatures near/above 100 degrees in many areas for
several days by later next week. Even if these progs are 10
degrees to warm, it is still looking rather warm/mostly dry for
most days next week. Thus, excessive heat and fire weather
statements might be needed by the later portions of next week as
fuels continue to dry out. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, though worse conditions are
possible in showers and thunderstorms. Expect showers to begin to
redevelop later this morning, isolated at first across the plains
before becoming widely scattered. Will need to watch KHVR, KCTB,
KGTF, and KLWT for brief MVFR to IFR conditions, with the timing of
these showers noted by PROB30 groups in the respective TAFs. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  73  50  67  49 /  60  30  80  50
CTB  71  48  64  46 /  70  40  90  30
HLN  79  51  75  51 /  30  10  70  40
BZN  75  45  71  44 /  30  10  40  40
WYS  65  37  66  35 /  20  10  40  20
DLN  73  43  71  41 /  10   0  20  10
HVR  75  51  68  51 /  70  50  90  50
LWT  70  46  66  46 /  60  30  80  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls