Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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159 FXUS65 KTFX 011948 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 148 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures will persist through at least July 4th, with daily opportunities for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for most areas, especially for the plains. Thereafter, a warming and drying trend looks to commence, though how warm we ultimately get this weekend is questionable. && .DISCUSSION... Through the 4th of July... Broad upper level troughing across the Northern Rockies will support a generally cooler than average period through the 4th of July. Cool temperatures aloft will result in afternoon and early evening instability across most areas today, allowing for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The same can be said for the next few days as well, though chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease for far southern portions of Southwest Montana. Forecast soundings show little in the way of shear through the week, hence current expectation is for impacts to be limited to lightning, briefly gusty winds, and small hail with the most robust thunderstorms. -AM Friday through next Monday... A strong upper level ridge will begin to build across the Southwestern US late this week, and will begin to expand its influence to the Northwestern US by the weekend. As this ridge builds, expect temperatures to gradually rise, with high temperatures expected to push the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations. There does remain some uncertainty as to the exact strength, location, and shape of this ridge, however, which means that there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how warm we are able to get (or even if we see much of a warm up for the weekend, as there is about a 30% chance of this warm up being rather insignificant). Ludwig && .AVIATION... 01/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions prevail for the most part through the TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late morning and be around through the early evening. TEMPOs were added around the time of highest probability for lightning at terminals, though mention of sub-VFR conditions was omitted due to lack of confidence in them occurring at terminals at this time. Lightning, briefly erratic winds gusts and small hail will be the main concern with thunderstorms that do form. Mountains may be obscured at times this TAF period. -AM Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 52 74 50 69 / 40 50 20 70 CTB 50 72 48 65 / 50 60 40 80 HLN 54 80 53 75 / 30 20 10 50 BZN 47 75 45 72 / 70 10 0 30 WYS 38 65 38 65 / 100 20 0 40 DLN 43 73 45 71 / 60 0 0 20 HVR 53 77 51 70 / 30 70 50 80 LWT 48 71 46 67 / 50 60 20 70 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls