262
FXXX10 KWNP 261231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 26-Jun 28 2024

             Jun 26       Jun 27       Jun 28
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         2.00
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
09-12UT       3.00         1.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         1.67
18-21UT       1.33         1.33         3.33
21-00UT       1.67         1.33         4.67 (G1)

Rationale: Minor (G1) storming is likely on 28 Jun due to the arrival of
a CME that left the Sun on 24 Jun.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024

              Jun 26  Jun 27  Jun 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 25 2024 1245 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2024

              Jun 26        Jun 27        Jun 28
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely on 26-28 Jun
due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3723 and 3720.