344
FXUS62 KTBW 011859
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
259 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A sprawling and strong upper-level ridge has settled across the
Eastern Half of the CONUS, amplifying the flow across the NE and
leading to a weak upper-level low feature off the FL East Coast. At
the surface, a the subtropical ridge has retreated slightly farther
to the east, with very light easterly flow (much like regime 6) in
place. As noted this morning, however, there is some drier air that
has worked into the region, which is limiting convection overall
today, when compared to the last few days. This looks confined
really just to today, however, as a stronger ESE flow should help
advect additional moisture back into the region tomorrow.

This ESE flow looks to dominate for much of the work week, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across
the region each day in response. This should be mainly afternoon and
evening convection. It is also favored to consolidate along the West
Coast later in the day. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning will be constant concerns through the week, with today
having a slightly higher potential for downbursts than the days to
follow if storms can grow deep enough to punch through the drier
air. So far, though, this drier air has largely meant low-topped
convection with limited lightning.

As the upper-level ridge flattens out this weekend and the flow
becomes more zonal once more, the subtropical ridge looks to build
back to the west, bringing a WSW fkow back to the region. This
favors earlier convection and more humid mornings late next weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Convection is developing along sea breeze boundaries this afternoon,
mainly remaining in the vicinity of terminals at this time. With
such light flow, it is difficult to have confidence in on-station
impacts for most terminals. However, thunderstorms moving from SE to
NW towards KRSW and KFMY are likely to cause on-station impacts
soon. Other terminals will be monitored for additional impacts,
which include a low potential for MVFR to IFR conditions and gusty
winds. With moisture increasing again for tomorrow, impacts are
more likely at terminals beginning tomorrow and lasting through
the remainder of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A light ESE flow prevails across coastal waters, turning onshore
each afternoon. Given the light winds, though, seas should remain
light through the period. However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time across coastal
waters this week, with the greatest coverage late into the evening
and overnight and lasting through early morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Today is the driest day this week with more isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. More widespread showers and storms return
tomorrow and remain in the forecast each day through the remainder
of the week. With ample moisture, no significant fire weather
concerns exist through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  93 /  20  50  40  70
FMY  77  92  78  94 /  30  70  30  60
GIF  77  95  77  95 /  40  60  20  70
SRQ  77  92  78  94 /  20  50  30  50
BKV  74  94  75  94 /  20  50  30  70
SPG  82  92  82  94 /  20  40  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery