313
FXUS62 KTBW 020011
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
811 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Much less convection across the region today compared to this past
weekend as some slightly drier air has moved over much of the
area. However, this will be short lived as moisture is expected to
return during Tuesday with more scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing. Best chances will be during the
afternoon and evening hours, but cannot rule out a shower or
storm near the coast during the morning, along with some other
convection moving north into southwest Florida as the moisture
returns. Forecast looks on track with no changes planned at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Convection will wind down over the next few hours with mainly VFR
conditions overnight into early Tuesday morning. Moisture will be
increasing on Tuesday and during the mid to late morning there
could be some areas of MVFR ceilings, and possibly an isolated
shower across southwest Florida. More scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening hours Tuesday which could cause some MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Light winds tonight will become southeast at 5 to 10
knots during the mid to late morning Tuesday then shift to
southwest at the coastal sites during the afternoon. Strong gusty
winds up to 30 knots will be possible in the convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A sprawling and strong upper-level ridge has settled across the
Eastern Half of the CONUS, amplifying the flow across the NE and
leading to a weak upper-level low feature off the FL East Coast. At
the surface, a the subtropical ridge has retreated slightly farther
to the east, with very light easterly flow (much like regime 6) in
place. As noted this morning, however, there is some drier air that
has worked into the region, which is limiting convection overall
today, when compared to the last few days. This looks confined
really just to today, however, as a stronger ESE flow should help
advect additional moisture back into the region tomorrow.

This ESE flow looks to dominate for much of the work week, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across
the region each day in response. This should be mainly afternoon and
evening convection. It is also favored to consolidate along the West
Coast later in the day. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning will be constant concerns through the week, with today
having a slightly higher potential for downbursts than the days to
follow if storms can grow deep enough to punch through the drier
air. So far, though, this drier air has largely meant low-topped
convection with limited lightning.

As the upper-level ridge flattens out this weekend and the flow
becomes more zonal once more, the subtropical ridge looks to build
back to the west, bringing a WSW flow back to the region. This
favors earlier convection and more humid mornings late next weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A light ESE flow prevails across coastal waters, turning onshore
each afternoon. Given the light winds, though, seas should remain
light through the period. However, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time across coastal
waters this week, with the greatest coverage late into the evening
and overnight and lasting through early morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Today is the driest day this week with more isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. More widespread showers and storms return
tomorrow and remain in the forecast each day through the remainder
of the week. With ample moisture, no significant fire weather
concerns exist through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  93  79 /  60  10  70  50
FMY  91  76  92  77 /  70  20  80  30
GIF  94  76  95  77 /  60  40  70  20
SRQ  90  77  92  77 /  40  20  60  50
BKV  92  74  93  75 /  60  20  60  40
SPG  91  81  92  82 /  50  20  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana