396
FXUS62 KTBW 021138
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
738 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Southeast
winds around 5 knots expected this morning, becoming SW 5-10 knots
during the afternoon. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today
from 18Z through 01Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-
23Z. Storms move over the eastern gulf after 01Z with rain-free
conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Currently at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary/surface trough
north of Florida extends northeast through the western Atlantic,
separating a surface ridge east of Florida and broad ridging to
the north over the eastern US. To the south of this boundary,
atmospheric moisture will increase again today under weak
southeast flow, allowing for more numerous storm coverage than
what was seen Monday. Convection will increase over the coastal
waters through the early morning hours, then begin to develop over
the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and early evening,
tapering off after sunset.

Wednesday through the rest of the week, upper level ridging will
shift east into the southeastern US, while the surface ridge to the
north rotates southeast into the Atlantic and setting up a ridge
axis across northern Florida. This will keep light southeast flow
in place over the forecast area, favoring daily scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. With the subsidence overhead, slightly
drier conditions are expected Thursday and into early Friday,
although moisture is expected to return during the weekend through
early next week as the upper level ridge continues to slide east.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Light south to southeast flow today will become more southeast to
easterly Wednesday through the rest of the week, with winds and seas
generally remaining below headline criteria. However, higher winds
and hazardous boating conditions are expected each day in the
vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  93  78 /  60  50  60  40
FMY  92  78  94  77 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  95  77  94  76 /  60  40  60  30
SRQ  92  77  93  77 /  60  50  60  30
BKV  94  74  94  75 /  60  50  60  40
SPG  91  81  93  82 /  50  50  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery