603
FXUS62 KTBW 041306
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
906 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

It`s a beautiful July 4th morning across west central and southwest
Florida. Visible satellite imagery and latest surface observations
area showing clear conditions across the region. The 12Z morning
sounding is showing abundant moisture once again with a PWAT value
of 2.03 inches that will translate to scattered showers and isolated
storms once again this afternoon. The other main weather impact will
be the heat this afternoon. Temps are already in the mid 80`s and
will top out in the mid 90`s with high humidity, which will bring
heat indices into the 105-112 degree range. This has warranted the
issuance of a Heat Advisory from 11 am to 6 pm. Made some slight
tweaks to POPs to reflect latest radar trends and model guidance,
otherwise forecast looks good.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of
thunderstorms. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today from 20Z
through 01Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-23Z. Storms
weaken after 01Z with rain-free conditions and light winds 5 knots
or less expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into
the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will produce onshore
winds each day. Scattered showers and isolated storms can be
expected daily through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  79 /  60  40  50  20
FMY  96  79  93  78 /  30  40  50  20
GIF  96  77  95  76 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  50  40  50  20
BKV  94  76  94  75 /  70  40  50  20
SPG  93  83  93  83 /  60  40  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...RDavis