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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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976 FXUS62 KTBW 020729 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 329 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Currently at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary/surface trough north of Florida extends northeast through the western Atlantic, separating a surface ridge east of Florida and broad ridging to the north over the eastern US. To the south of this boundary, atmospheric moisture will increase again today under weak southeast flow, allowing for more numerous storm coverage than what was seen Monday. Convection will increase over the coastal waters through the early morning hours, then begin to develop over the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and early evening, tapering off after sunset. Wednesday through the rest of the week, upper level ridging will shift east into the southeastern US, while the surface ridge to the north rotates southeast into the Atlantic and setting up a ridge axis across northern Florida. This will keep light southeast flow in place over the forecast area, favoring daily scattered to numerous thunderstorms. With the subsidence overhead, slightly drier conditions are expected Thursday and into early Friday, although moisture is expected to return during the weekend through early next week as the upper level ridge continues to slide east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected to hold through at least mid morning. Some showers shifting onshore after around 14z could cause MVFR ceilings, mainly over southwest Florida. Thunderstorms will then develop across the area after around 17-18z, threatening area terminals through early evening. Rain free and VFR conditions are expected to return by around 02-03z. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Light south to southeast flow today will become more southeast to easterly Wednesday through the rest of the week, with winds and seas generally remaining below headline criteria. However, higher winds and hazardous boating conditions are expected each day in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 78 93 78 / 60 50 60 40 FMY 92 78 94 77 / 60 40 60 20 GIF 95 77 94 76 / 60 40 60 30 SRQ 92 77 93 77 / 60 50 60 30 BKV 94 74 94 75 / 60 50 60 40 SPG 91 81 93 82 / 50 50 60 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming