072
FXUS62 KTBW 021303
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
903 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The land breeze showers and storms have been firing up this morning
over the eastern gulf waters. Southeast winds over the Florida
peninsula is assisting in keeping these showers and storms off the
coast through the morning hours. The latest visible satellite
imagery and surface observations are showing mostly sunny skies over
Florida peninsula with temperatures already in the mid 80`s. The 12Z
morning sounding is showing a rebound in moisture from 24 hours ago
with a PWAT of 2.09 inches. This increase in moisture will support
scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon/evening,
moving from the southeast. Current forecast looks good with no
changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 902 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Southeast
winds around 5 knots expected this morning, becoming SW 5-10 knots
during the afternoon. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today
from 18Z through 01Z for all terminals and PROB30 for TS from 21-
23Z. Storms move over the eastern gulf after 01Z with rain-free
conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 902 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

High pressure ridging through the center part of the state is
producing a light south to southeast flow today, becoming more east-
southeast on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week.
Winds will be light, not exceeding 15 knots with wave heights 2 feet
or less throughout the period. Scattered showers and storms can be
expected daily through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  93  78 /  60  50  60  40
FMY  92  78  94  77 /  60  40  60  20
GIF  95  77  94  76 /  60  40  60  30
SRQ  92  77  93  77 /  60  50  60  30
BKV  94  74  94  75 /  60  50  60  40
SPG  91  81  93  82 /  50  50  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery