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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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313 FXUS62 KTBW 020011 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 811 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Much less convection across the region today compared to this past weekend as some slightly drier air has moved over much of the area. However, this will be short lived as moisture is expected to return during Tuesday with more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. Best chances will be during the afternoon and evening hours, but cannot rule out a shower or storm near the coast during the morning, along with some other convection moving north into southwest Florida as the moisture returns. Forecast looks on track with no changes planned at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Convection will wind down over the next few hours with mainly VFR conditions overnight into early Tuesday morning. Moisture will be increasing on Tuesday and during the mid to late morning there could be some areas of MVFR ceilings, and possibly an isolated shower across southwest Florida. More scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Light winds tonight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots during the mid to late morning Tuesday then shift to southwest at the coastal sites during the afternoon. Strong gusty winds up to 30 knots will be possible in the convection. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A sprawling and strong upper-level ridge has settled across the Eastern Half of the CONUS, amplifying the flow across the NE and leading to a weak upper-level low feature off the FL East Coast. At the surface, a the subtropical ridge has retreated slightly farther to the east, with very light easterly flow (much like regime 6) in place. As noted this morning, however, there is some drier air that has worked into the region, which is limiting convection overall today, when compared to the last few days. This looks confined really just to today, however, as a stronger ESE flow should help advect additional moisture back into the region tomorrow. This ESE flow looks to dominate for much of the work week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across the region each day in response. This should be mainly afternoon and evening convection. It is also favored to consolidate along the West Coast later in the day. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be constant concerns through the week, with today having a slightly higher potential for downbursts than the days to follow if storms can grow deep enough to punch through the drier air. So far, though, this drier air has largely meant low-topped convection with limited lightning. As the upper-level ridge flattens out this weekend and the flow becomes more zonal once more, the subtropical ridge looks to build back to the west, bringing a WSW flow back to the region. This favors earlier convection and more humid mornings late next weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A light ESE flow prevails across coastal waters, turning onshore each afternoon. Given the light winds, though, seas should remain light through the period. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible at nearly any time across coastal waters this week, with the greatest coverage late into the evening and overnight and lasting through early morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Today is the driest day this week with more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. More widespread showers and storms return tomorrow and remain in the forecast each day through the remainder of the week. With ample moisture, no significant fire weather concerns exist through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 93 79 / 60 10 70 50 FMY 91 76 92 77 / 70 20 80 30 GIF 94 76 95 77 / 60 40 70 20 SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 40 20 60 50 BKV 92 74 93 75 / 60 20 60 40 SPG 91 81 92 82 / 50 20 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Close DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana