557
FXUS62 KTBW 291128
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

With the ridge axis overhead, a light and variable background wind
flow is in place. This means sea breeze circulations will dominate
today. In response, mainly afternoon and evening convection is
expected to have an impact at TAF sites, despite a few coastal
showers ongoing now. The earliest impacts are likely for KPIE and
KTPA, where more complex bay and sea breeze interactions are likely
to initiate earlier storms. More activity is anticipated once the
east coast and west coast sea breeze collide this afternoon,
sending boundaries back towards the FL West Coast. A window for
IFR impacts and gusty winds will exist during VCTS windows
highlighted in TAFs, and TEMPOs have been added for sites with a
higher confidence in those potential impacts being realized. With
the rainy season well underway, a similar pattern will repeat for
the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Typical summer pattern of warm, muggy days with a chance of
showers/storms in the afternoon persists into the weekend. For
today, some showers could begin to develop earlier in the day along
the nature coast and could drift onshore. Otherwise, best chances
will be later in the afternoon/evening with daytime heating, ample
moisture, and sea breeze collisions all come together. The flow will
continue to be on the light side, but will favor the E/SE  as the
ridge axis drifts further north. Showers diminish and winds become
light and variable overnight. This pattern continues into next week.

Daytime highs will hang in the low to mid 90s through most of the
week. Heat indices will reach in the triple digits most afternoons,
especially in locations free of rain. Remember proper outdoor
precautions in the summer when it comes to heat and thunderstorms.
When thunder roars, head indoors.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No headlines expected at this time as winds remain light. Only
concern will be the development of showers and storms over the water
in the morning. Or any showers that push over the waters from shore
later in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

No major fire weather concerns at this time as ample moisture and
light winds continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  91  77 /  60  40  70  40
FMY  95  77  91  76 /  60  50  70  30
GIF  94  75  92  75 /  70  30  70  10
SRQ  93  76  91  75 /  50  40  70  40
BKV  92  74  92  73 /  60  30  70  40
SPG  93  81  91  80 /  50  40  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce