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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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731 FXUS62 KTBW 021820 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A weak frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east from the northeast Gulf of Mexico to Georgia. This boundary will remain to the north and weaken over the next 24 hours as broad surface high pressure south of Bermuda ridges westward across the central part of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. This ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather factor through mid-week keeping a predominant southeast wind flow over the region. Abundant moisture with PWAT values between 1.8 - 2.3 inches will persist through the forecast period. Scattered showers and storms will be possible today and tomorrow, developing over the southeast part of Florida and traversing northwestward each afternoon/evening as well as some west coast sea breeze developments. Nocturnal land breeze showers and storms can also be expected over the eastern gulf waters during the overnight hours. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the 70`s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Throughout the next 3-7 days, high pressure to our north will begin to move southeast and become centered to the east-northeast of the state, dominating the overall weather pattern and establishing a predominantly east-southeast flow across our CWA. This synoptic setup, combined with adequate moisture aloft, will be favorable for typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours throughout most of the week. As we approach the weekend, a drier air mass will move across some northern and central parts of the state, which could slightly hinder thunderstorm development during that timeframe. Moisture is expected to return towards the latter half of the weekend though, and this will remain along with the established east-southeast flow to continue to support the development of scattered afternoon showers and storms heading into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Will hold VCTS to cover thunderstorms today from 18Z through 02Z for all terminals and TEMPO TSRA from 18-21Z for PGD/FMY/RSW and 21-23Z for SRQ/TPA/PIE/LAL. Storms move over the eastern gulf after 02Z with rain-free conditions and light winds 5 knots or less expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure ridging through the center part of the state is producing a light south to southeast flow today, becoming more east- southeast on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week. Winds will be light, not exceeding 15 knots with wave heights 2 feet or less throughout the period. Scattered showers and storms can be expected daily through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A typical summertime pattern continues over the area with abundant moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered showers and isolated storms expected each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 93 78 93 / 70 70 50 60 FMY 78 94 77 95 / 30 70 20 60 GIF 76 94 76 95 / 50 70 10 60 SRQ 77 93 77 94 / 50 70 40 60 BKV 74 94 75 95 / 70 70 40 60 SPG 81 93 82 94 / 60 70 60 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn LONG TERM...Wynn/Thaden DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery