227
FXUS62 KTBW 301149
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
749 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Afternoon convection is expected once again today as a light ESE
background flow prevails. This should allow for sea breeze
development this afternoon along the coast, with early storms
forming on this boundary. As the east coast sea breeze moves
westward during the afternoon, additional collisions are favored,
with more widespread activity developing. KPIE is still likely to
be the first terminal with any impacts today, but all terminals
will see convection developing shortly thereafter in the vicinity.
SWFL terminals are likely to see activity a little earlier today
compared to yesterday given this setup as well. While afternoon
convection will continue through the week ahead, tomorrow looks
like it may be the driest day of the week, with slightly drier air
moving in for the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Forecast set on repeat as conditions remain similar to previous
days. Ridge axis situated over Florida holds us in the easterly flow
through through the beginning of the week. Just like yesterday, this
flow favors showers and storms developing along sea breeze and
outflow collisions, which will then move, rather slowly, inland. Due
to the slow moving nature of showers, isolated, urban street
flooding may be an issue. Remember if you come across a flooded
street the best option is to turn around, don`t drown.

The next feature to shift us out of the current pattern arrives
later in the week as a trough dips down and pushes the ridge axis a
bit more south and west, bringing back a more SW flow. This flow
will favor showers/storms over coastal waters in the morning,
pushing on shore and inland as the day goes on.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

 A few showers and storms already developing along the sea breeze
near the nature coast should remain just off the coast. This
afternoon however, more showers and storms will develop along sea
breeze and outflow boundaries. Some of these may drift over or
near the coastal waters. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts
could be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the period as ample moisture
remains. Showers and storms are expected this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  92  78 /  70  60  60  30
FMY  91  75  91  77 /  70  40  70  30
GIF  93  74  93  76 /  70  40  70  20
SRQ  91  75  91  77 /  70  60  60  30
BKV  92  73  93  74 /  70  60  60  30
SPG  91  79  91  81 /  70  60  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Pearce