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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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400 FXUS62 KTBW 011123 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 723 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Some lingering MVFR to LIFR conditions are impacting the central interior this morning. However, with the sun now rising, this should quickly lift and gradually mix out over the next few hours. Once this occurs, the main concern remaining through the day is for thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. With a very light background ESE flow today, sea breeze circulations will again be the driving force behind convective development this afternoon. However, the atmosphere does look a little drier today, suggesting less coverage and generally shorter windows for impacts at terminals. It also makes on-station impacts less certain. SWFL has the longest windows, with slightly higher moisture to support more storms in place once again today. Moisture content increases again tomorrow and through the remainder of the week, with a higher potential for impacts at terminals each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure centered over the Atlantic is extending across central Florida, keeping light and generally southerly/southeasterly flow in place across the forecast area. This pattern will hold through Tuesday, favoring showers and a few storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early morning hours, perhaps shifting into the coast at times. Land based storms will then start to develop by early afternoon along the west coast sea breeze near the coast, then numerous storms will continue to shift inland through the afternoon and early evening hours as the sea breeze pushes inland. Wednesday and Thursday, ridging aloft will shift east into the southeastern US, providing some broad subsidence while the surface ridge redevelops north and sets up more of an easterly flow pattern. While the subsidence may limit rain chances slightly, the easterly flow will favor afternoon and early evening storms building towards the west coast with the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures should also creep up slightly during the second half of the week as a result of the subsidence. Friday through the weekend, the surface ridge is forecast to slide back south across southern Florida, returning to a light southerly flow pattern. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure sitting over the coastal waters will keep light south and southeast flow in place today and Tuesday, turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze. The ridge lifts north on Wednesday, favoring more southeast to easterly flow for the rest of the week. Winds and seas will generally remain well below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally hazardous boating conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop each day this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 93 78 / 60 20 50 40 FMY 91 77 92 78 / 60 30 70 30 GIF 94 77 95 77 / 60 40 60 20 SRQ 90 77 92 78 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 92 74 94 75 / 60 20 50 30 SPG 91 82 92 82 / 50 20 40 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Fleming