542
FXUS62 KTAE 021938
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture
remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow. A
weak boundary on the edge of a surface high that noses down the
eastern seaboard will serve as a focus for storms to develop on
Wednesday across our Georgia counties along with airmass storms
and convection being forced by the northward moving seabreeze.
Similar to this afternoon, storms will get going late in the
morning and early afternoon hours and generally move northward
through the day Wednesday. With a very muggy airmass in place,
heat indices will again remain a concern. Similar to Tuesday, not
all locations will see heat indices above 108 (criteria for heat
advisory), but most locations across our Florida counties and into
extreme southern Georgia where rainfall doesn`t occur, or
develops late, will likely hit a 108 heat index.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Deep layer ridging is forecast to set up overhead and remain pretty
much in place throughout the next week or so. This will allow
temperatures to rise again into the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices in the 105-115 degree range in the afternoons. Several days
of heat advisories appear likely. Low temperatures are forecast to
remain in the mid to upper 70s, which will not allow for much
respite at all from the daytime heat. Accumulation of many abnormally
hot days and nights will increase our overall susceptibility to heat
illness and exhaustion. Please take heat safety precautions
seriously. Despite the ridging, ample moisture overhead will still
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with the
best chances along the diurnal sea/land breeze circulation. Severe
weather appears less likely at this point, but some storms could
produce gusty winds. The primary threat with these storms seems to
be locally heavy rainfall with some isolated spots of flooding
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

MVFR/VFR conditions prevail this afternoon as storms generally
move inland this afternoon. Most of the coverage of storms this
afternoon will be at VLD/DHN/ABY with coverage dropping after 00z.
IFR/LIFR conditions will potentially develop at all sites
overnight but ECP tonight, but confidence on exactly when and
where remain low. Expect the IFR/LIFR conditions to slowly scour
out through 15z on Wednesday with heating of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the
week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered
showers and storms are expected through today, with activity
generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the
diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell
from Hurricane Beryl will arrive late Friday into Saturday and
linger over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The wet pattern from the last few days and relative humidities
staying above 45% through the next few days will keep fire
concerns low through the period. The only concerns will be lower
dispersions across south-central Georgia and the southeast
Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area
through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers
and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be
possible across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  92  76  93 /  20  70  30  60
Panama City   78  90  77  91 /  30  60  20  50
Dothan        75  92  75  93 /  30  60  20  50
Albany        75  92  75  93 /  30  60  20  50
Valdosta      76  93  75  93 /  50  70  30  60
Cross City    75  93  75  94 /  50  70  50  60
Apalachicola  79  88  78  89 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068-069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield