680
FXUS62 KTAE 030532
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
132 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture
remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow. A
weak boundary on the edge of a surface high that noses down the
eastern seaboard will serve as a focus for storms to develop on
Wednesday across our Georgia counties along with airmass storms
and convection being forced by the northward moving seabreeze.
Similar to this afternoon, storms will get going late in the
morning and early afternoon hours and generally move northward
through the day Wednesday. With a very muggy airmass in place,
heat indices will again remain a concern. Similar to Tuesday, not
all locations will see heat indices above 108 (criteria for heat
advisory), but most locations across our Florida counties and into
extreme southern Georgia where rainfall doesn`t occur, or
develops late, will likely hit a 108 heat index.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through around
09z before visibilities and ceilings begin to drop at all sites
excluding KECP. IFR to occasionally LIFR ceilings are possible,
particularly at KDHN and KABY. VFR conditions should resume around
13z, though KABY could hang on to at least MVFR through 14-15z. VCTS
will begin around 18z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Generally south to southwest winds are expected through much of the
week, and seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered
showers and storms are expected through today, with activity
generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the
diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. Long period swell
from Hurricane Beryl will arrive late Friday into Saturday and
linger over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The wet pattern from the last few days and relative humidities
staying above 45% through the next few days will keep fire
concerns low through the period. The only concerns will be lower
dispersions across south-central Georgia and the southeast
Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A very warm and moist airmass is forecast to remain over the area
through the upcoming week. Scattered to sometimes widespread showers
and storms are expected daily, and locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible throughout the period. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but several instances of nuisance flooding will be
possible across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  76  93  76 /  70  30  60  10
Panama City   90  77  91  78 /  60  20  50  10
Dothan        92  75  93  75 /  60  20  50  10
Albany        92  75  93  76 /  60  20  50  10
Valdosta      93  75  93  76 /  70  30  60  10
Cross City    93  75  94  75 /  70  50  60  30
Apalachicola  88  78  89  79 /  50  40  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield