801
FXUS62 KTAE 020146
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
946 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The forecast is on track, so no changes to the forecast are
forthcoming this evening.

Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows a large
area of onshore PW values in the 2-2.25 inch range. PWs increase
to an extremely moist 2.4 inches over the Gulf waters south of the
Emerald Coast.

In the seasonably unstable and very moist air mass, convection
will bubble up overnight over the 85-degree Gulf waters, loosely
focusing along a boundary near of just offshore the Forgotten
Coast, perhaps being enhanced overnight by the landbreeze. For
example at 9 pm, Apalachicola observed a light NNE breeze, while
Buoy 42036 observed a light southwest breeze. So convection will
fire off overnight in this regime, spreading onshore around
daybreak. The environment could favor non-supercell waterspouts in
the climatologically favored hours just after sunrise. Waterspouts
tend to form beneath dark, flat cloud bases under building
convective towers or agitated towering cumulus, sometimes with
only a hint of rain.

Convection will then build inland across our Florida counties
during the morning and early afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A slight weakness between two H5 ridges is allowing the region to
see a weak cold front enter the Southeast. However, a 594dm H5
ridge builds in from the west and cause the front to stall over
the region during the near term. Combine this with ample moisture
with precipitable water values (PWATs) between 2.1" to 2.4" and
possible boundary interactions with the seabreeze and outflows
means there is the potential for scattered to numerous showers and
storms again Tuesday. Confidence isn`t quite there to extend the
Flood Watch into Tuesday at this time. That said, there remains
the chance for some very heavy rain within any of the stronger
storms, which could lead to localized flooding in urban and poor-
drainage areas.

The weak cold front should be just strong enough to knock down
daytime highs a few degrees, especially when you factor in possible
cloud cover and showers/storms around the area, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. A bit of drier air at the surface should
also bring heat indices down to between 98 to 105 degrees Tuesday
afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will remain quite mild with
temperatures remaining in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The short term will serve as a bit of a transition period between
the wetter pattern we`ve been in and another ridge settling in
over the area. The stalled front overhead is forecast to wash out
on Wednesday but could still provide a bit of a focusing mechanism
for shower and thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. A few
of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and could
cause isolated flooding issues if it falls over already saturated
areas. Very humid conditions will continue to persist, as high
temperatures are only forecast in the low to mid 90s but heat
indices will max out in the 105 to 112 degree range. Lows will
remain quite warm in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Hotter and slightly drier conditions are expected for the long
term as deep layer ridging sets up over the area. This ridge will
help suppress showers and thunderstorms with only an isolated to
scattered chance generally expected in the afternoons. High
temperatures will also soar into the mid to upper 90s or even near
100 once again, with max heat indices in the 106-114 degree range.
If this forecast holds, several days of heat advisories appear
likely. Lows will continue to not be helpful in cooling off, only
dropping into the mid to upper 70s in the overnights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The air mass will remain moist and unstable for the next 24 hours.
Ongoing convection near the terminals will fade and dissipate in
the first 1-3 hours after sunset, with convectively quiet
conditions late this evening and overnight. As we approach
sunrise, a large area of showers and thunderstorms will develop
near the coast east of Apalachicola, with the showers and storms
developing inland toward TLH and perhaps VLD during the morning
and early afternoon. Other terminals will be prone to more
isolated and discrete thunderstorms during the afternoon. With the
moist air mass, a few hours of IFR and MVFR cigs are possible at
all terminals in the hours around sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

South to southwest winds are expected through much of the week.
Seas should be around 1 to 2 feet as a result. Scattered showers
and storms are expected through the early portion of the week,
with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early
morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its
peak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Hot and moist conditions are expected through the next several
days with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each
day. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall along with
gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise, there are no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A flood watch remains in effect for most of the area this evening.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
across much of the area today, some of which may produce locally
heavy rainfall. Since storm motions are fairly slow, some flooding
may occur if heavy rainfall rates remain parked over the same
areas for a prolonged period of time. Widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall is expected, with isolated higher amounts possible.

Another round of locally heavy rainfall may be possible on
Tuesday, but confidence is too low to extend the Flood Watch at
this point. If we get a lot of heavy rainfall today and remain
confident in heavy rainfall tomorrow, the watch may be extended
through tomorrow evening.

No river flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  89  75  92 /  40  70  30  60
Panama City   79  89  78  90 /  60  70  30  50
Dothan        76  90  74  91 /  40  70  30  60
Albany        76  89  73  92 /  50  70  30  50
Valdosta      76  90  75  92 /  50  70  40  70
Cross City    76  91  75  94 /  30  60  40  60
Apalachicola  80  88  79  88 /  40  70  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ015>019-026>029-
     034-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ143>148-155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield