Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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980 FXUS62 KTAE 281413 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1013 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 No wholesale changes were made to the forecast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are lifting northeast from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. They will push inland throughout the day and increase in coverage as the day progresses. Given the moist environment with a nearly 2.2" PWAT on the TLH sounding this morning, localized heavy rain is the primary concern which could lead to nuisance flooding; there could also be some gusty winds in the stronger storms thanks to a bit of drier air between 850 and 700 mb. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A 500mb vorticity maxima shortwave trough centered over coastal Alabama and Mississippi will continue to provide widespread forcing for ascent across the entire forecast area today. Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to progress northward through the remainder of the overnight hours before additional rounds develop in the northern Gulf later this morning and push northward throughout the day. Moist thermodynamic profiles with 2-2.25 inch PWATs currently being observed across the region will provide sufficient moisture across the area for warm rain processes to take place. This will allow for extremely efficient rainfall rates today, which could lead to some localized flash flooding in poor drainage and urbanized areas. These showers and thunderstorms will generally keep mostly cloudy conditions in place over the region today as well, which will moderate high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. With high dewpoints present across the area, expect overnight lows to remain warm in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Wet weather continues through the weekend, as a moist and unstable airmass remains overhead. There will be renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms each day, with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows during the period will be sultry and generally in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Our rich and moist atmosphere holds through the early portion of the week, with upper level high pressure building into the region. The ridge then strengthens mid week, before being flattened by a trough over the northern plains or Great Lakes region. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain high early in the week due to the ample moisture and perhaps some minor shortwaves sneaking through. Outside of that, convection relies more on the seabreeze for midweek. In terms of high temperatures, we could see a return to the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Showers across the Gulf have continued to push inland this morning. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop across the region throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. This may lead to brief MVFR to IFR conditions at all terminals through much of today. Outside of these brief restrictions in showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period. Expect southwest winds around 10 mph at all terminals today. && .MARINE... Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Southwesterly flow continues to usher in moisture and has led to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning. Elevated rain chances remain in place through the weekend. Winds and seas will remain around 10 to 15 knots through early Saturday before winds become lighter through the rest of the weekend and early next week. Seas will drop as well though lingering long period swells from disturbed weather across the southern Gulf will delay lower seas until next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing over the next couple of days as a very moist airmass lingers over the region. This will keep dispersions in a favorable range as mixing heights are expected to remain in the 3500-4000 ft range. Transport winds will generally remain out of the southwest at around 10-15 mph today. Overall, with the moist airmass in place, there are no fire weather concerns for the next couple of days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Satellite derived PWATs this morning are around 2 inches, aligning fairly well with the SPC mesoanalysis page. Guidance suggests that additional moistening will be possible which could put PWAT values around 2-2.25 inches. Given the shortwave to our west, there will be plenty of forcing for scattered to widespread thunderstorm chances. Quite a bit of rain has already fallen over the western FL Panhandle and into southeast AL, where the flash flood guidance suggests rates of 2 to 4 inches/hr. CAM and hi-res guidance show decent probabilities of up to or greater than 3 inches of accumulated rainfall over the next few days, favoring the FL counties along and south of I-10. Higher amounts of 4 to 6 inches, perhaps even locally higher, could be possible. Should we have training or slow moving storms flooding could range from nuisance to flash. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days, with the bulk of it falling in the next 1-4, will be around 1-3 inches. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 75 94 76 / 70 20 70 20 Panama City 88 79 90 79 / 70 20 50 20 Dothan 91 74 93 75 / 60 20 60 20 Albany 93 74 94 75 / 70 30 50 20 Valdosta 93 74 96 75 / 70 30 60 30 Cross City 91 75 93 75 / 70 20 70 30 Apalachicola 87 80 89 79 / 70 20 60 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR