Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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100 FXUS62 KTAE 291032 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 632 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Upper level high pressure begins to nose in from the west today, while at the surface high pressure hold. Ample moisture remains in place, leading to yet another day of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for heavy rain, and perhaps nuisance to localized flash flooding, will be possible as PWATs are forecast to be around 2.0- 2.4 inches. This will especially hold true for slow moving or training storms. Gusty winds also remain possible in stronger showers and storms. Highs for Saturday will be in the mid 90s, with heat index values of 100-106 degrees across our GA and AL counties. The FL counties may be a touch higher and generally range 103-108, with smattering of higher values up to 113. Confidence is low to medium on this occuring, as showers and thunderstorms could fluctuate the temperatures. Opted to no hoist a Heat Advisory at this time, but that could be warranted depending on how conditions look by the morning update. Nonetheless, it will still be quite hot and muggy outside. Make sure to drink plenty of water, wear light clothes, and take care of yourselves by practicing heat safety. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Mid and upper level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex region will lead to an anticyclonic wave breaking episode across the eastern conus starting late Sunday and into Monday. This will lead to a digging trough through the Mid-Atlantic states on Monday. This will lead to a subsequent frontal boundary pushing southeast through the deep south during the day on Monday. With deep tropical moisture remaining in place across the region on both Sunday and Monday, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected both days, with the highest chances remaining across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where seabreeze interactions will likely take place. Some CAM guidance does show a potential for excessive rainfall amounts; however, the coverage is not widespread, and some models show these high totals in different locations across the forecast area. This has lead to some uncertainty in forecast QPF totals through the short term forecast. Currently WPC is forecasting widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches through the next 5 days. With PWATs in the 2-2.25 inch range over the next several days, locally higher totals are expected. Overall, high temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday, and lows will generally remain in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The aforementioned mid and upper level ridge will continue to remain entrenched across the southern conus through the end of the work week, with deep tropical moisture lingering over the area through at least Wednesday before surface high pressure centered over New York provides some northeast flow over the region. This will bring in dry air from the previous frontal passage earlier in the work week southwestward into North Florida. The dry air in place over the region will effectively lower PoPs below climatological levels for the region and lead to more hot weather areawide. High temperatures will likely surge into the upper 90s to near 100 once again for the holiday weekend. With many subtleties expected with the placement of the dry air, this could change through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 No major changes to the TAFs this morning. Satellite shows a mix of low and mid level clouds across the region, with cigs varying from VFR to IFR. So far only KDHN has reported bouncing cigs, though it`s possible KABY and KVLD where MVFR could succumb to some lower cig based on surrounding observations. As the sunrise, clouds should lift some. The latest HRRR guidance shows we could see some morning convection, but wasn`t confident to adjust all the TAF sites to reflect that. Instead small tweaks were made to the afternoon showers and storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet will prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal boundary pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable early next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will predominantly be attributed to the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the weekend and early next week with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Typical summertime weather is in store for us, with warm and muggy conditions and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds in addition to heavy rain. Dispersions over the next few days look to be fair to generally good. There are no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Widespread forecast rainfall totals through the next 5 days are generally expected to remain around 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals possible. This is primarily due to deep tropical moisture remaining in place over the region through the middle of next week. There are currently no flooding concerns at this time; however, localized flash flooding from training thunderstorms will be possible, especially in poor drainage and urban environments due to very efficient rain processes and high rainfall rates. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 94 76 93 76 / 80 30 70 50 Panama City 91 79 91 78 / 60 30 60 50 Dothan 94 75 93 76 / 70 40 60 40 Albany 94 75 94 75 / 60 40 60 40 Valdosta 94 75 93 76 / 70 40 70 40 Cross City 92 75 93 75 / 90 50 70 40 Apalachicola 89 79 90 78 / 60 20 60 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for FLZ108-112. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...KR MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Bunker