Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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383 FXUS62 KTAE 300113 CCA AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 852 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... ...INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF SW GA DOWN TO THE FL STATE LINE... .Correction...Added content to the Marine section .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Clusters of slow-moving thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain rates have been ongoing this evening across parts of SW GA just east of the AL border down to northern Leon County. Instances of flash flooding are possible with this activity over the next couple hrs or so as these cells gradually track eastward. If you are under a Flood Advisory of Flash Flood Warning, please avoid any flooded roads, which are especially difficult to see at night. Convection likely persists for the first half of tonight before diminishing after midnight, per the latest HRRR run. Therefore, the main changes to tonight`s forecast were increasing rain chances where the axis of highest precipitation is currently in place and added the explicit mention of "heavy rain" in our hourly wx grids that coincide with definite PoPs of around 90% or more. Hourly temperatures on the front end were adjusted as well to account for the rain-cooled air mainly across the western half of the Tri-State area. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Ridging aloft continues nudging in from the west through the near term with a moist unstable airmass remaining in place over the forecast area. Garden variety pop up storms are possible areawide tomorrow with PoP`s generally maxing out in the 60-70% areawide. PWAT`s ranging from 2.2-2.5" support efficient rainmakers, hinting that a localized nuisance / flash flooding threat is possible with these storms if they are slow moving and / or stall. Heat remains a concern as well tomorrow, though there are some caveats. Heat indices across our FL counties generally range from 108-112 with a few areas even reaching 113+, supportive of a heat advisory. However, given the large coverage of storms tomorrow during peak heating, rain cooled air with scattered anvil debris from these storms may hinder most of the areas from realizing these temperatures. Our SE AL and SW GA counties have heat indices > 108 as well, particularly in their counties bordering FL, though uncertainty remains the same. Regardless, temperatures are expected to once again be hot and muggy tomorrow afternoon. Make sure to wear light clothes tomorrow, drink plenty of water, and limit time outside if possible. Tonights low temperatures are expected to drop to the mid to upper 70s with afternoon highs tomorrow reaching the mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The short term period looks a bit unsettled with mid to upper level ridging pushing over to the west and a weak front stalling out over the area. How far south the front makes it is unclear at this point, but it will likely create a local focus for shower and thunderstorm activity With the most coverage expected Monday afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible along with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 90s, however areas with the highest coverage of rain and clouds may end up a few degrees below that. Lows are forecast in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Ridging begins to build back overhead during the long term, gradually lowering our rain chances through mid week. A few showers and storms will still be possible, particularly along the seabreeze in the afternoon, but widespread convection is not expected once the ridge settles in. This will also allow temperatures to soar once again, reaching the mid to upper 90s again by the end of the week. Lows are forecast to remain fairly steady in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity today will begin to diminish after sunset with the remaining storms ending around 04Z-06Z. During the overnight hours, winds will become light to calm. It is possible for patchy fog to develop at our inland terminals but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Showers/thunderstorms may develop in the late morning into early afternoon; however showers and thunderstorms are more likely expected to return during the afternoon Sunday, hence VCTS at all terminals, with higher confidence around 20z for TSRA at most terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds near 10 kts with 2-ft seas and a dominant period of 4-5 seconds this evening. From CWF Synopsis...Wave periods notably increase overnight via southerly swells with an uptick in seas. Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas around 3 to 4 feet will prevail through most of the weekend until a weak frontal boundary pushes into the Gulf and winds become light and variable early next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will predominantly be attributed to the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that is currently crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the weekend and early next week with activity generally greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal land breeze circulation is at its peak. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Tomorrow, isolated storms are expected to occur across the area in the afternoon hours with gusty and erratic storms near and within them. This will continue over the next few days as a moist and unstable airmass remains over the forecast area. Transport winds over the next few days will be variable in direction ranging from around 5-10mph with increasing mixing heights each afternoon. Fair to generally good dispersions are expected areawide. At this time, there are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Widespread forecast rainfall totals through the next 5 days are generally expected to remain around 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals possible. This is primarily due to deep tropical moisture remaining in place over the region through the middle of next week. There are currently no flooding concerns at this time; however, localized flash flooding from training thunderstorms will be possible, especially in poor drainage and urban environments due to very efficient rain processes and high rainfall rates. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 93 76 93 / 80 70 40 70 Panama City 80 91 78 92 / 30 70 50 60 Dothan 76 93 75 95 / 60 70 30 50 Albany 76 94 75 95 / 60 70 30 60 Valdosta 76 94 76 94 / 60 70 30 60 Cross City 76 93 75 91 / 50 70 40 60 Apalachicola 80 91 78 88 / 30 70 50 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...IG3 NEAR TERM...Worster SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Worster HYDROLOGY...Bunker