125
FXUS62 KTAE 010742
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Similar to yesterday evening`s forecast update overnight rain
chances were adjusted to account for the latest radar trends and
HRRR run. Clusters of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
the region and have been accompanied by heavy rain rates and
frequent lightning. Storm motions have been gradually from north
to south, though erratic outflow boundaries and chaotic collisions
have caused some random movement at times.

The airmass remains very moist and unstable despite the loss of
daytime heating. Instances of localized flooding are possible,
particularly around I-75/Valdosta area where merged cells have
gotten hung up a bit. There is also the potential for strong/gusty
winds. We still expect a steady diminishing trend the next few
hrs with lingering convection over Apalachee Bay.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Ample moisture remains in place across the region as indicated by
precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2.2" to 2.5", or above the 90th
percentile for late June/early July. Throw in a weak
shortwave/inverted trough moving across Florida and an approaching
cold front and there is the potential for quite a bit of rain in
short amount of time this afternoon and again on Monday. Ensemble
guidance is indicating a 30% chance or higher of experiencing 3"+
much of the Florida Big Bend and parts of southern Georgia. There
are also non-zero chances of experiencing 5"+ and 8"+, primarily
across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, on the HREF. This means
there is the potential for localized areas of flash flooding over
the next 36 hours or so. As a result, a Flood Watch was issued
starting this afternoon and lingering until at least Monday night
for areas east of the Apalachicola River in Florida and portions of
southwestern Georgia. It is worth noting that there is expected to
be a lull in activity tonight as we lose the heating of the day
before showers and thunderstorms blossom with the daytime heating
Monday.

Another thing worth mentioning is that fog is also possible tonight
into early tomorrow morning for areas that experience the heaviest
rain later this afternoon into the evening. However, confidence was
not high enough in any one location to include in the official
forecast at this time.

As far as temperatures go, we`ll be near to slightly above normal
outside of any showers and thunderstorms with highs reaching into
the lower to middle 90s. Overnight lows will drop into the middle
70s. With rain coverage anticipated to be pretty high, have opted
against issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. However, if we end up
being drier than expected, heat indices could approach the 108
degree threshold. Something to monitor tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A stalled front is expected to remain draped over the area from west
to east through the short term period. This feature may provide a
focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on
Tuesday, with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Depending on how much rainfall we receive today and Monday,
any saturated areas would be more susceptible to flooding from
additional rainfall on Tuesday. Due to a combination of increased
rain chances, the front, and cloud cover, highs are only forecast in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows generally remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A transition to a hotter and drier pattern is expected for the long
term as ridging builds back in overhead. Rain chances will gradually
diminish Wednesday into Thursday, with only isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and storms expected by the end of the week and
weekend. Along with the ridge, high temperatures will once again
soar into the mid to upper 90s and may even approach 100 in a few
areas. Lows overnight will not provide much relief, remaining in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 338 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the morning today at
all terminals. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to impact ABY, VLD, and TLH during the late morning and continue
through the late evening hours as a front approaches the region
today. DHN and ECP will likely see VCTS for a few hours during the
afternoon hours today. These thunderstorms may bring brief periods
of MVFR to LIFR restrictions before lifting back to VFR
conditions. Overall, expect variable winds at around 5-10 knots
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting westerly winds between 10 and 15 kts
with 2-3-ft seas and a dominant period of 7-8 seconds this
evening.

From CWF Synopsis...Overnight maritime convection aims to focus
over Apalachee Bay. Southwesterly flow around 10 knots and seas
around 3 to 4 feet will prevail until a weak frontal boundary
pushes into the Gulf late Monday and winds become light and
variable in its wake. Scattered showers and storms are expected
through the weekend and early next week with activity generally
greatest in the overnight and early morning hours as the diurnal
land breeze circulation is at its peak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No fire weather concerns are expected the next few days as
dispersions are expected to be fair to good across the region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible the
next few days. Gusty and erratic winds and heavy downpours are
possible within any of the storms. Otherwise, temperatures will
climb into the middle 90s with heat indices pushing 105 to 108 the
next couple of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A Flood Watch was issued for the Florida Big Bend and portions of
southwest Georgia for later this afternoon into Monday evening.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible the next couple
of days, so widespread flooding or river flooding is not expected.
However, abundant moisture combined with an inverted trough and a
cold front nearing the region means there is the potential for a few
localized areas of 3"+ of rain in a short amount of time, similar to
what we experienced in Gadsden/Leon and Houston Counties Saturday
evening. Recent HREF and ECAM guidance shows non-zero probabilities
of 5"+ over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will likely lead to
localized flash flooding, especially in poor drainage and urban
environments due to extremely efficient rain processes and high
rainfall rates expected. It`s also worth noting that there will be a
lull in the activity tonight into early tomorrow with additional
showers and storms expected later Monday morning that will last
through Monday afternoon and into the evening.

Additional afternoon showers and storms are possible each afternoon
leading up to the 4th of July and may bring the chance of very
localized nuisance flooding underneath any of the stronger storms.

No river flooding is anticipated for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  76  91  76 /  90  40  80  30
Panama City   91  77  90  77 /  80  40  60  20
Dothan        95  75  90  74 /  60  30  70  20
Albany        93  75  89  73 /  50  50  60  30
Valdosta      90  75  92  75 /  80  60  80  30
Cross City    88  76  92  75 /  80  30  80  30
Apalachicola  89  79  89  79 /  90  40  60  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>018-026-027-108-112-
     114.

     Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-
     118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ120>126-142>145-155>158.

     Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ143>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese