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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
342 FXUS65 KSLC 280953 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 353 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Much drier conditions can be expected areawide today, though a few afternoon showers and storms will develop over eastern Utah. High pressure will bring the return of hot and dry conditions over the weekend. Increasing winds will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Moisture and instability may return to the area early next week. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...The Pacific Northwest trough that grazed northern Utah yesterday is centered over Montana this morning, putting Utah and southwest Wyoming under a zonal flow aloft. Yesterday`s strong to severe convection lingered into the overnight hours, but what remains has dissipated or moved into western Colorado. In the wake of the trough, will see some modest cooling, with maxes over northern portions of the forecast area running close to normal for this time of year. What may be more noticeable, however, is the dry air rapidly advecting into the area from the west. By this afternoon anticipating PWs of 0.5 inch or less over all but far eastern Utah, the only area to see any threat of convection this afternoon. As the trough continues away from the area, the ridge over the Great Basin will move over Utah for Saturday. A hot airmass will rapidly advect in with highs over northern Utah running up to 10F hotter than Friday. Occasionally breezy southwest winds could combine with the dry airmass to produce critical fire weather conditions over southwest Utah Friday into Saturday. See the Fire Weather section of the AFD for more details. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...An approaching PNW trough will increase southwesterly flow aloft. A well mixed boundary layer during the day on Sunday will increase surface southwesterlies with widespread gusts 25-35 mph. High pressure centered over Texas will advect higher moisture into the southeastern portion of the CWA with drier air encompassing the remainder of the region. This will pose a fire weather risk Sunday afternoon. An isolated high based thunderstorm will be possible across the southeastern portions of the CWA. With inverted V sounding profiles, any storms that do form will be capable of producing gusty microburst winds. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s for most locations with 100-107 across far southern Utah. The aforementioned trough will move through Utah on Monday with increasingly southwesterly flow and low RH once again. A dry cold front will sweep through northern Utah, dropping high temperatures ~10 degrees compared to Sunday. This cooler air likely won`t make it too far into central or southern Utah, resulting in little change in daytime highs. Moisture will stay more elevated across southeastern Utah so another isolated storm can`t be ruled out as this trough moves by. A gradual transition to a dry northwesterly flow aloft will scour out moisture across southeastern Utah and eliminate almost all chances for precipitation for the remainder of the period. Cooler air aloft across the northern CWA will keep temperatures near normal with temperatures running ~5 degrees warmer than normal across central and southern Utah. By the end of next week the ensemble members signal a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall synoptic pattern. 56% of members have high pressure building off the PNW coast with a continued dry northwesterly flow that will prevent temperatures from getting too much above normal. 25% of the members have high pressure building over the Great Basin that would keep conditions dry with hotter temperatures. The remaining 19% of members have high pressure centered to our southeast that could advect moisture into the region indicative of a monsoon type of pattern. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the long term period. Drier air moving into the region will keep skies clear with light northerly winds transitioning to a brief southerly flow before sunrise before going back to a light northerly during the day. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail for the airspace. Dry air moving into the region will keep skies mostly clear with increasing southwesterly winds during the day across southern Utah and a lighter northerly wind across the north. && .FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms that have lingered overnight are diminishing and moving out of the area. Drier air is rapidly moving into Utah from the west, keeping most of the area free from convection this afternoon. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over far eastern Utah. Over western Utah, relative humidities will dip below critical levels, with winds becoming strong enough over southwest Utah to support isolated critical fire weather conditions. By Saturday, minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop to or below 15 percent over much of Utah, with breezy winds anticipated over a large portions of southwest and west central Utah. With winds expected to increase areawide as the airmass over Utah continues to dry, critical fire weather conditions could become relatively widespread. Moisture and instability are expected to return to the area beginning Monday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan LONG TERM/AVIATION...Mahan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity