433
FXUS65 KSLC 012129
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
329 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front stalled over northern Utah has kept
conditions mild and cloud with hot, dry and windy conditions
further south. Dry air is settling in for the remainder of the
week with another dry front on Wednesday bringing northwest winds
with gusty conditions and an increased fire weather risk across
portions of southern and eastern Utah.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)...An upper level trough axis
is pushing through the region. This has led to a cold front
remaining nearly stationary across northern Utah from south of
Wendover to southwestern Wyoming. Along and behind the front,
clouds have kept temperatures several degrees below normal with
only a few very light rain showers. Visible satellite depicts an
immature cumulus field across southeastern Utah that has yet to
produce much vertical development, but isolated convection remains
possible across this area through the evening as PWATs remain
>.7". A strong moisture gradient across southern Utah has kept
west central and southwestern Utah in a hot and dry southwesterly
flow regime.

The front across northern Utah will continue to slowly sag south
overnight into tomorrow. The cooler air won`t make it much further
south, but a transition to northerly winds will help ease the
fire weather risk tomorrow as afternoon gusts will be reduced
compared to todays southwesterly wind gusts. Day time highs
tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s across northern Utah
to ~103-105 across lower Washington county with clear skies.

Northwest flow aloft will remain in place with a secondary front
arriving overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning that will
reinforce the dry air in place.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday), Issued 406 AM MDT...
Mid late week this first
week of July, a fairly mild weather pattern is anticipated across
our region. The main weather feature to track that can cause some
changes to the forecast will be an area of low pressure dropping
across the Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday before tracking
to the Dakotas Friday. Interaction from this trough with a high
pressure ridge just may be enough to fluctuate temperatures enough
for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. It`s reflected in the
current forecast for Thursday in particular, with a noticeable cold
frontal passage from the aforementioned low. Meanwhile, southern
Utah will persist under hot and dry conditions with little day to
day change in the weather pattern.

The weekend forecast continues to indicate hot and dry conditions
across all of Utah whilst sitting on the eastern periphery of a
ridge of high pressure. There are a small number (<20%) of ensemble
model members that place the center of the low further east than
where is most likely looks to settle over California. If that came
true, expect even hotter temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions with north winds will continue
through the evening hours. Winds will become southerly by 06Z with a
30% chance winds become southerly as early as 04Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will continue
across the region through the period. Gusty southwest winds will
persist across southern Utah through 02Z before diminishing. Light
northwesterly to northerly winds will continue across northern Utah.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front stalled across northern Utah has brought
cloud cover and much cooler temperatures with light northerly winds.
Central and southern Utah remain hot, dry, and mostly clear. However,
this front will push further south and transition winds to a lighter
northerly component. A secondary front arrives on Wednesday that will
bring even drier air along with gusty northwest winds for portions
of southern and eastern Utah that will elevate the fire weather risk
once again. Northwest flow will remain in place for the remainder of
the week with very dry air in place preventing any precipitation, but
winds look to remain marginal.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-495>498.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ489-498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mahan
LONG TERM...N. DeSmet
AVIATION...Seaman
FIRE WEATHER...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity