955
FXUS65 KSLC 020943
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
342 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry air is settling in for the remainder of the
week with another dry cold front on Wednesday bringing northwest
winds with gusty conditions and an increased fire weather risk
across portions of southern and eastern Utah which may continue into
Thursday. Very warm temperatures look to return for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...A mean trough is in place over
the western CONUS this morning. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave
disturbance is swinging across far northern Utah. This has helped
pushed a cold front into the area, which now extends from southwest
through east-central Utah. The northerly flow ushered in behind this
cold front will bring a drier airmass into the area. Latest analysis
of PWAT shows it ranging from 0.4 to 0.6 inches across the state. As
such, expect dry and stable conditions today with near seasonal
temperatures.

Another shortwave disturbance is progged to rotate through far
northern Utah tomorrow afternoon. This will bring another push of
northerly winds into the area behind the next cold front. Breezy
conditions can be expected especially near favored downslope areas
tomorrow which, when combined with the dry airmass, will result in
locally critical fire weather conditions where fuels have cured.
Other than fire weather concerns, the weather will remain fairly
benign tomorrow.


.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Another July cool dry
frontal passage mid week will leave temperatures split across Utah
Thursday. High temperatures are forecast 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal normals for July 4th across northern Utah with very
comfortable mid 70 degree temperatures by the late evening hours.
But then if we change over to southern and eastern Utah we look at
the other side of the boundary where hot and drier conditions
persist. Here, we don`t see much change in the forecast day to day.
Speaking of hot in southern Utah, temperatures will closely be
monitored Sunday through Tuesday with a high temperature range
between 111 and 115 degrees in St. George currently being forecast.
It is pretty tough to find any chances for precipitation in this
longer range forecast in the region. Moisture is looking to skirt
around the ridge of high pressure that is expected to set up across
our area and instead impact areas to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light winds and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at the terminal. Look for a northwest wind this morning and
afternoon with a switch out of the southeast this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Mild weather conditions today
lead to diurnal wind variations with gusty afternoon breezes for
some, including EVW and BCE. VFR ceilings and visibilities are
forecast across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Utah will remain in a general west to northwesterly
flow aloft through the end of the week. A series of weak
disturbances grazing northern Utah will maintain near seasonal
temperatures across the area, while the airmass remains dry.
Enhanced northerly winds behind an associated cold front, especially
in favored downslope areas, will combine with low humidities to
create critical fire weather conditions Wednesday into Thursday
across portions of southern and eastern Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for UTZ489.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Cheng/NDeSmet

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