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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
156 FXUS65 KSLC 272104 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 304 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A trough will graze northern Utah through early Friday, bringing strong thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding over eastern Utah and less warm temperatures for northern Utah. Dry conditions will return Friday through the weekend with warming temperatures and increasing winds, bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...Early Thursday afternoon, record amounts of atmospheric moisture was in place for the time of year with PWATs in the 225-250% of normal range, mainly along and south of the Unitas and east of I-15, very similar to what was observed last Friday, June 21. Additionally, a trough and embedded shortwave was propagating eastward across the Northern Rockies. This was supplying 35-45kts of bulk shear across a broad swath of the area, with the exception of SW and NW Utah. Finally, SBCAPE values on the order of 1500-2500J/kg was in place. With all of these ingredients interacting with one another, widespread showers and thunderstorms, many severe with very heavy rain, were ongoing from the Unitas southward and along/east of I-15. Millard/Juab counties northward through the Wasatch Front have lower probabilities for severe thunderstorms, but enough of a chance to where we can`t rule out impactful thunderstorms across these areas either, but probabilities are higher over aforementioned eastern areas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM MDT for much of eastern Utah. See spc.noaa.gov for more details. This evening, CAMs suggest thunderstorms will gradually wind down, and largely have diminished by midnight tonight, although a few showers may linger overnight across central Utah. The severe weather threat is expected to largely have come to an end around 9PM. The threat for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain leading to flash flooding will continue. Primary threat area this evening will be east of I-15 and along/south of I-70. Much quieter conditions are in store for Friday, with isolated, largely disorganized afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms, confined to largely the Swell. Temperatures will cool to near normal over northern and central Utah behind today`s trough, but remain 5-10F above normal across southern Utah. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Saturday), Issued 419 AM MDT... A period of shortwave ridging across the region on Saturday and Sunday will result in clear, dry, and hot conditions. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be the hottest temperatures throughout the long term period with highs in the mid to upper 90s across most valleys and 100-105 across far southern Utah. A trough will be approaching from the PNW on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow aloft will increase. Daytime heating will create a well mixed boundary layer that will result in gusty southwesterly winds 25-35 mph for much of the CWA. RH 10-15% Sunday afternoon will bring an increased risk of fire weather for the western half of the CWA. High pressure centered over Texas will advect higher moisture content towards the four corners that will result in an RH gradient from west to east with RH values closer to 20% across the eastern half of the CWA. Given the higher moisture content further east and weak ascent ahead of the approaching trough, some isolated diurnal convection is possible in the eastern portion of the CWA. Inverted V sounding profiles suggest that any storms that do develop will be high based with the potential for microbursts. By Monday afternoon the axis of the trough will be moving through Utah. Winds will once again increase during the afternoon with widespread gusts 25-30 mph. Additionally, more isolated storms are possible across the eastern portion of the region with another microburst threat. Across northern and central Utah cooler air will move in and allow highs to remain near or slightly above normal through the remainder of the period as the jet stream resides nearby keeping a gradient of cooler air aloft close enough to prevent temperatures from climbing too much during the day. Temperatures stay a few degrees hotter than normal across southern Utah. Northwest flow aloft will keep dry air in place throughout most of next week which will aid in more efficient nighttime cooling with lows getting below 70 for areas outside of far southern Utah. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds are likely to continue through the afternoon/evening. However, there is a 30% chance that outflow originating from storms in Utah County force winds to southerly after 23z at KSLC. Showers over the terminal are unlikely this afternoon/evening, but there is a 20% chance of an isolated storm moving off the Oquirrh Mtns with gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon, mainly south of KENV-KSLC-KEVW. The strongest storms are expected across eastern UT. KCDC and KSGU could see an isolated thunderstorm or two. Main threats include gusty and erratic outflow winds around 30-50kts, lightning, and hail. Storms will largely begin to diminish after 03z, with some showers lingering in central Utah through around 08z. Regarding winds not near thunderstorms, southwesterly flow will dominate ahead of a front pushing into northern UT early this evening, transitioning winds to northerly. && .FIRE WEATHER...As a Pacific Northwest trough grazes northern Utah through early Friday, drier air will move in from west to east. Until then, significant moisture will remain in place over eastern Utah through this evening and will combine with the trough to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with many capable of producing strong, gusty winds into early this evening. The potential for heavy rain and a few instances of flash flooding will also exist. The drying will continue in earnest late beginning Friday, eliminating the threat of convection but as winds increase, particularly through the weekend, this will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. The best potential for critical fire weather conditions on Friday will be across south-central Utah. On Saturday, the combination of low humidity and breezy winds shifts to southwest Utah. Finally, by Sunday, the best chance for critical fire weather conditions due to wind and low relative humidity will be across most locations beneath 7,000 feet, with the driest and breeziest conditions across the west desert. Here, minimum humidity is expected to drop down to 5 to 15 percent with afternoon gusts into the 25-35 mph range. Another trough moving by is expected to modestly increase moisture over the area for the beginning of the work week. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ ADeSmet/Cunningham For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity