227
FXCA62 TJSJ 022104
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
504 PM AST Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry conditions are expected tomorrow as a Saharan Air
Layer moves across the region. On Thursday, a tropical wave
moving into the eastern Caribbean will increase showers and
thunderstorms once again. Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
stay in place for southern Puerto Rico through tonight as the
swell from Hurricane Beryl lingers. A High Risk of Rip Currents
will remain in place for this area through tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...

Hurricane Beryl has now left the forecast area and continues to
move westward south of the Dominican Republic. Impacts were
minimal across Puerto Rico and the USVI, however Coastal Flood and
High Surf Advisories stay in place for southern Puerto Rico
through tonight.

Drier air with suspended Saharan dust has entered the region,
significantly reducing the amount of showers to about none. This
trend will continue through tonight into tomorrow as this dry air
mass remains over the islands. Hazy and hot conditions are expected
throught the day, especially for coastal regions.

However this dry trend will end quickly as on Thursday the approach
of a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will bring an
increase of passing showers and thunderstorms for Puerto Rico and
the USVI. This wave is also forecast to bring windy conditions
across the region which may yield in squally weather at times. Minor
flooding is possible with the heaviest rainfall activity. Showers
will continue into the night as the wave departs westward into the
Caribbean.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday
/from previous discussion/

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area
of low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical
Atlantic with a low formation chance over the next 48 hours and
the next 7 days. This low pressure is expected to move quickly
over the Caribbean waters on Thursday, and move away from the
local area by Friday morning. However, lingering moisture
associated to the Invest 96L will generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the islands and regional waters. By Saturday
morning this activity will move over the Mona Passage and The
Hispaniola. A mass of drier air is expected to follow and move
over the region, promoting fair weather conditions through the
beginning of the workweek. Despite of the presence of drier air,
patches of moisture will be moving into the area. This, in
combination with daytime heating and local effects will increase
the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western
portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Latest model
guidance suggest the arrival of a tropical wave between Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Therefore, an increase in moisture is
expected along with the potential for convective activity across
the islands. Regardless of the expected weather, daytime
temperatures will continue warm to hot. Highs will remain in the
range between the mid to upper 80s and low 90s along the coastal
and urban areas and heat indices surpassing the mid 100s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Gusty winds will persist across the local terminals, mostly out of
the ESE at 15G25KT. HZ due to Saharan dust will begin after 03/13Z,
with VIS remaining at 6Z. Showers diminished in coverage, but
Passing SHRA will be possible for the USVI terminals and TJSJ, but
without significant impacts to operations.

&&

.MARINE...

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will continue tonight as
Major Hurricane Beryl moves westward across the Caribbean Basin,
This will cause hazardous marine and coastal conditions to prevail
especially for the Caribbean Waters and Passages. Drier conditions
are expected from a Saharan Air Layer.


&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ002-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ002-003-007-
     011-013.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007-
     011-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007-
     011.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-723-726-
     745.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ716.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Thursday for AMZ733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

WS/RVT/RC