108
FXCA62 TJSJ 020910
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Major Hurricane Beryl continues to move WNW over the Caribbean
waters and south of the local area. Unstable weather conditions
are expected throughout the day with the arrival of bands of heavy
showers and gusty winds. The biggest impact to our islands from
Beryl are the chaotic seas due to a strong swells across Caribbean
regional waters with breaking waves up to 18 feet. Conditions
will gradually improve by Wednesday, with the arrival of drier
air. Nonetheless, Invest 96L is forecast to approach the area on
Thursday and will enhance the potential for active weather through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Breezy to windy conditions will prevail throughout the day across
the islands as Major Hurricane Beryl continues to pass south and
away from the region. Outer rainbands from Beryl will continue to
bring showers and thunderstorms across all islands and waters
through at least this afternoon. Quick-moving showers with periods
of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small-stream flooding and
localized flash flooding. Due to the fast-moving nature of these
showers, rainfall accumulations should generally range between 1 and
2 inches, with isolated higher amounts. However, the main hazards
from Beryl will be the dangerous seas across the Caribbean waters
and portions of the Mona and Anegada Passages, as well as the life-
threatening rip currents with high surf conditions and possible
coastal flooding across the Caribbean coastline of all the islands.

Weather conditions should improve by this evening and continue
through Wednesday as a Saharan Air Layer with drier air and
suspended Saharan dust moves from the east. Therefore, hazy skies,
warm to hot temperatures, and limited shower development are
expected through late Wednesday. A tropical wave will move across
the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity again across the USVI and PR.

.LONG TERM...

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor an area
of low pressure (Invest 96L) located in the Central Tropical
Atlantic with a low formation chance over the next 48 hours and
the next 7 days. This low pressure is expected to move quickly
over the Caribbean waters on Thursday, and move away from the
local area by Friday morning. However, lingering moisture
associated to the Invest 96L will generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the islands and regional waters. By Saturday
morning this activity will move over the Mona Passage and The
Hispaniola. A mass of drier air is expected to follow and move
over the region, promoting fair weather conditions through the
beginning of the workweek. Despite of the presence of drier air,
patches of moisture will be moving into the area. This, in
combination with daytime heating and local effects will increase
the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western
portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Latest model
guidance suggest the arrival of a tropical wave between Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Therefore, an increase in moisture is
expected along with the potential for convective activity across
the islands. Regardless of the expected weather, daytime
temperatures will continue warm to hot. Highs will remain in the
range between the mid to upper 80s and low 90s along the coastal
and urban areas and heat indices surpassing the mid 100s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

SHRA/TSRA associated with the rainbands from Hurricane Beryl will
continue to increase through at least 02/18z across the local area
terminals. Therefore, tempo MVFR to brief IFR conds and mtn top
obscd are possible across all PR and USVI terminals. VFR conditions
with hazy skies are expected to gradually improve from east to west
late in the fcst period. East winds increasing at 20-25 kt with
stronger gusts.

&&

.MARINE...

Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue today as Major
Hurricane Beryl moves westward across the Caribbean Basin, far to the
south of the regional waters. This will cause hazardous marine and
coastal conditions to prevail especially for the Caribbean Waters and
Passages. The outer bands of Beryl may produce squally weather
throughout the day.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

Dangerous breaking waves up to 18 feet are anticipated today for
the southern coastlines. Some of these areas in Puerto Rico
include: Patillas (Road PR-3, Sector La Guarda Raya, communities
near Inches Beach, and the fishing village; Guayanilla (El Faro
community); Ponce (La Playa neighborhood); Guayama (Villa Real,
Quebrada Branderi, Playita Machete, Barrancas, Pozuelo); Salinas
(Playa Salinas and Playita); Santa Isabel (Yauca); Juana Diaz
(Pastillo and Manzanillo); and Arroyo (Barrio Pueblo and Playita
Cortada).

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ002-012-013.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ002-003-007-
     011-013.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ003-007-
     011.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ003-007-
     011-013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ001-002.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-723.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for AMZ716.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ726-745.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Wednesday for AMZ733-741.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ735.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....GRS
PUBLIC DESK/UPPER AIR...ICP